Moldova vs Italy Expected Goals (xG), Forecast & Details

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World

World Cup 2026 Stadionul Zimbru

Scoring Trends

Moldova

Italy

0.63

Goals Scored

2.75

3.75

Goals Conceded

1.63

1.13 Expected Goals (xG) 3.25

100%

Over 1.5

100%

63%

Over 2.5

88%

50%

Over 3.5

50%

Detailed Analysis

Explore Head-to-Head and Form below for more insights.

Expert Analysis by Omoye ThankGod

Italy enter this game as clear favorites to control the proceedings. The game flow could swing back and forth as teams find their rhythm.

Their head-to-head record shows a history of competitive battles. The visitors have been efficient on the road, making an away win a strong possibility. The numbers provide a solid foundation for this match outlook.

Possible Outcome Probability

Match Winner

Home Win27%

Draw15%

Away Win58%

Goals & Scoring

Both Teams to Score48%

Over 1.5 Goals83%

Over 2.5 Goals52%

Match Events

Dumbravanu D.

28'

Revenco I.

55'

Sub

Reabciuk O. In: Bitca S.

Out: Reabciuk O.

Previous Encounters

13 Nov 25 WOR

Moldova

0:2

✓ Italy

09 Jun 25 WOR

Italy ✓

2:0

Moldova

07 Oct 20 FRI

Italy ✓

6:0

Moldova

12 Oct 05 WOR

Italy ✓

2:1

Moldova

08 Sept 04 WOR

Moldova

0:1

✓ Italy

Recent Form (Last 5)

Moldova

Home Team

16 Nov

Israel

4 : 1

Moldova

13 Nov

Moldova

0 : 2

Italy

14 Oct

Estonia

1 : 1

Moldova

09 Oct

Romania

2 : 1

Moldova

09 Sept

Norway

11 : 1

Moldova

Italy

Away Team

16 Nov

Italy

1 : 4

Norway

13 Nov

Moldova

0 : 2

Italy

14 Oct

Italy

3 : 0

Israel

11 Oct

Estonia

1 : 3

Italy

08 Sept

Israel

4 : 5

Italy

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Germany	6	5	1	16:3	15
2	Slovakia	6	4	2	6:8	12
3	Northern Ireland	6	3	3	7:6	9
4	Luxembourg	6	0	6	1:13	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	6	4	2	0	14:2	14
2	Kosovo	6	3	2	1	6:5	11
3	Slovenia	6	0	4	2	3:8	4
4	Sweden	6	0	2	4	4:12	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Scotland	6	4	1	1	13:7	13
2	Denmark	6	3	2	1	16:7	11
3	Greece	6	2	1	3	10:12	7
4	Belarus	6	0	2	4	4:17	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	France	6	5	1	0	16:4	16
2	Ukraine	6	3	1	2	10:11	10
3	Iceland	6	2	1	3	13:11	7
4	Azerbaijan	6	0	1	5	3:16	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Spain	6	5	1	0	21:2	16
2	Turkey	6	4	1	1	17:12	13
3	Georgia	6	1	0	5	7:15	3
4	Bulgaria	6	1	0	5	3:19	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Portugal	6	4	1	1	20:7	13
2	Ireland	6	3	1	2	9:7	10
3	Hungary	6	2	2	2	11:10	8
4	Armenia	6	1	0	5	3:19	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	8	6	2	0	27:4	20
2	Poland	8	5	2	1	14:7	17
3	Finland	8	3	1	4	8:14	10
4	Malta	8	1	2	5	4:19	5
5	Lithuania	8	0	3	5	6:15	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Austria	8	6	1	1	22:4	19
2	Bosnia & Herzegovina	8	5	2	1	17:7	17
3	Romania	8	4	1	3	19:10	13
4	Cyprus	8	2	2	4	11:11	8
5	San Marino	8	0	0	8	2:39	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Norway	8	8	0	0	37:5	24
2	Italy	8	6	0	2	21:12	18
3	Israel	8	4	0	4	19:20	12
4	Estonia	8	1	1	6	8:21	4
5	Moldova	8	0	1	7	5:32	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	8	5	3	0	29:7	18
2	Wales	8	5	1	2	21:11	16
3	North Macedonia	8	3	4	1	13:10	13
4	Kazakhstan	8	2	2	4	9:13	8
5	Liechtenstein	8	0	0	8	0:31	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	England	8	8	0	0	22:0	24
2	Albania	8	4	2	2	7:5	14
3	Serbia	8	4	1	3	9:10	13
4	Latvia	8	1	2	5	5:15	5
5	Andorra	8	0	1	7	3:16	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Croatia	8	7	1	0	26:4	22
2	Czech Republic	8	5	1	2	18:8	16
3	Faroe Islands	8	4	0	4	11:9	12
4	Montenegro	8	3	0	5	8:17	9
5	Gibraltar	8	0	0	8	3:28	0

Match Preview: Moldova vs Italy

Moldova welcomes Italy for what is shaping up to be a crucial match in World Cup 2026. Scheduled for Thursday, November 13, 2025 at 19:45 UTC, the match will take place at Stadionul Zimbru. Both sides will be looking to make their mark in this scheduled event.

Team Context & Standings

Entering this game, both Moldova and Italy are focused on their respective objectives for the season. Moldova will look to leverage their competitive standing to gain an advantage, while Italy aims to improve their league position with a positive result on the road.

Head-to-Head & History

Previous meetings between these two sides often provide context for what to expect. While past results offer a glimpse into tactical matchups, this fresh encounter brings new dynamics. The teams have their own recent history to draw upon as they prepare tactically.

Tactical Overview

Tactically, this game could be decided in the midfield battles. Control of possession, defensive discipline, and clinical finishing in the final third are expected to be the deciding factors. Moldova will try to assert dominance early, whereas Italy might look for opportunities on the break or through set-pieces.

Following the Match

For those following the action, staying updated is key. From the first whistle to the final moments, fans can follow every goal, momentum shift, and key event as the drama unfolds on the pitch.

Key Statistics

Beyond the scoreline, the match statistics will tell the deeper story of the performance. Expect close scrutiny on metrics such as shots on target, possession percentages, and corner counts. These figures will illustrate which team effectively controlled the tempo and created the most dangerous chances.

Why This Matters

Ultimately, this fixture carries weight for the season's broader narrative. Momentum is crucial in World Cup 2026, and a victory in this match would serve as a significant morale booster for the winning side moving forward in the campaign.