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Wolves vs Nottingham

England England

Premier League 2025/2026 Molineux Stadium
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Wolves play Nottingham in the Premier League 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Wolves averaged 0.93 goals scored and 1.57 conceded. Nottingham averaged 1.55 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. In past meetings, Wolves won 0, Nottingham won 2, and they drew 3. Their last match on Feb 11, 2026 ended 0:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.46 for Wolves and 2.19 for Nottingham. This points to a Nottingham double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
Wolves
35%
Draws
43%
Nottingham
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Nottingham

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

79% / High Confidence
  • Wolves picked up more points recently compared to Nottingham.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.46 vs 2.19 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 89%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%
Over 2.5 Goals 47%
Over 3.5 Goals 28%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 48%
Wolves Clean Sheet 10%
Nottingham Clean Sheet 23%
First Half Goal 66%
Second Half Goal 69%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Wolves Nottingham
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 5 12
Draws 9 9
Losses 16 10
Goals Scored 0.93 1.55
Goals Conceded 1.57 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 0.43 2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 11, 2026 Premier League
Nottingham vs Wolves
0:0
Dec 3, 2025 Premier League
Wolves vs Nottingham
0:1
Jan 6, 2025 Premier League
Wolves vs Nottingham
0:3
Aug 31, 2024 Premier League
Nottingham vs Wolves
1:1
Apr 13, 2024 Premier League
Nottingham vs Wolves
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Wolves Compare

Avg xG / game 0.33
Avg xA / game 0.21

Nottingham Compare

Top Goalscorer Igor Jesus
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.16
Avg xA / game 1.32

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Wolves 22 / 100
Nottingham 43 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Wolves Nottingham

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Nottingham or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +57.1%
7.14
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.7%
2.44
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Wolves attacking → ← attacking Nottingham

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Wolves scored in 57% of their last 30 games.

Nottingham let in goals in 65% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Wolves went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Nottingham lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

24 Points in last 5 45
0.43 Goals expected (xG) 2.38
2.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.50

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Arsenal38267571:2785
2Manchester City38239677:3578
3Manchester United382011769:5071
4Aston Villa381981156:4965
5Liverpool381791263:5360
6Bournemouth381318758:5457
7Sunderland3814121242:4854
8Brighton3814111352:4653
9Brentford3814111355:5253
10Chelsea3814101458:5252
11Fulham381571647:5152
12Newcastle Utd381471753:5549
13Everton3813101547:5049
14Leeds3811141349:5647
15Crystal Palace3811121541:5145
16Nottingham3811111648:5144
17Tottenham3810111748:5741
18West Ham381091946:6539
19Burnley384102438:7522
20Wolves383112427:6820