Professional Metrics in Football Analysis

What separates a casual guess from professional analysis? It isn’t a “magic formula”, but rather a disciplined approach to data.

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Key Metrics Used by Pros

1. Expected Goals (xG)

xG measures the quality of a shot based on variables such as distance and angle. It provides a better picture of a team’s performance than just the final score.

2. Defensive Organization

Experts look at “shots conceded” and “big chances allowed”. A team might be winning, but if they allow 20 shots per game, their luck will eventually run out.

3. Squad Depth

Injuries to key players like a starting goalkeeper or a main striker drastically change a team’s win probability.

The Role of Market Movements

Professional bettors also watch the odds. Drastic changes in odds often indicate breaking news, such as a late injury or a change in weather conditions.

Conclusion

Understanding these metrics allows you to see the game through the lens of an analyst, improving your long-term understanding of the sport.