Sport Tipps
Al Ahli SC vs Al-Gharafa
Asia
AFC Champions League 2025/2026 King Abdullah Sports City 
Spielzusammenfassung
Al Ahli SC enters this AFC Champions League 2025/2026 fixture as the clear favorite, carrying a strong win probability of 60%. Al Ahli SC averages 2.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded in recent matches. Al-Gharafa shows a form average of 1.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 3 wins for Al Ahli SC, 0 wins for Al-Gharafa, and 2 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 20.10.25 ended in a 4:0 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 1.20 for Al Ahli SC and 1.00 for Al-Gharafa, suggesting the primary value lies in the Al Ahli SC double chance or over markets.
Siegwahrscheinlichkeits-Meter
Basierend auf 10.000 Simulationen unter Berücksichtigung von Heimvorteil & Form
Modell-Vertrauen
Gesamter Indikatorwert
- Al Ahli SC hat zuletzt mehr Punkte geholt als Al-Gharafa.
- Das Modell prognostiziert eine höhere Torgefahr für die Gastgeber (1.20 vs. 1.00 xG).
- Frühere Begegnungen zeigen einen klaren Vorteil für das Heimteam.
- Hohe Trefferquoten deuten auf ein torreiches Spiel hin (Über 2.5 Wahrscheinlichkeit: 60%).
Torwahrscheinlichkeits-Rechner
Modellschätzungen für Tormärkte basierend auf xG-Historie
Formanalyse der Teams
Durchschnittswerte pro Spiel
| Metrik | Al Ahli SC | Al-Gharafa |
|---|---|---|
| Spiele | 33 | 30 |
| Siege | 26 | 12 |
| Unentschieden | 3 | 3 |
| Niederlagen | 4 | 15 |
| Erzielte Tore | 2.21 | 1.37 |
| Gegentore | 0.82 | 1.8 |
| Erwartete Tore (xG) | 1.38 | 2.00 |
| Erwartete Gegentore (xGA) | 0.88 | 1.86 |
H2H
Historische Erfolgsquoten in Hauptmärkten
Taktisches Profil
Feldpositionen & Kontrollstile
Al Ahli SC
Al-Gharafa
Schlüsselspieler-Analyse
Top-Akteure und erwartete Torbeteiligungen
Al Ahli SC Vergleich
Al-Gharafa Vergleich
Kader-Verfügbarkeit
Sokapicks Momentum-Index
Aktueller Formindex inklusive Belastung und Gegnerstärke (0-100)
Angriffs- & Abwehrstärke
Vorhersage-Engine
Ergebnishäufigkeiten und Hauptmärkte
Value Bet Finder (+EV)
Spiele mit mathematischem Vorteil gegenüber Buchmachern
Erwarteter Spielverlauf
Dominanzkurven in 15-Minuten-Abschnitten
Al Ahli SC is expected to start with high intensity, putting pressure on the visitors early.
Al-Gharafa will try to absorb the pressure and slow down the tempo of Al Ahli SC's attacks.
Expect Al Ahli SC to create chances through sustained possession before the break.
Tactical adjustments at half-time will see Al Ahli SC vary their attacking width.
Fatigue may set in for Al-Gharafa, allowing Al Ahli SC's midfield to exploit vertical gaps.
Expect a final offensive push from Al Ahli SC, while Al-Gharafa takes risks to salvage a result.
Offensiv-Heatmaps & Schüsse
Dynamische Heat-Overlays aus Zonen-Statistiken
Smart Insights
Vom System automatisch erkannte Muster
Al Ahli SC have found the net in 88% of their last 33 matches.
Al-Gharafa have conceded at least one goal in 90% of their last 30 fixtures.
Historical meetings between these sides average 3.00 goals per match.
Al Ahli SC remained undefeated in 5 of their last 5 overall matchups.
Al-Gharafa suffered defeat in 0 of their last 5 overall games.
Risikoanalyse
Bewertung von Störfaktoren
Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.
Continental tournament fixture. Elite European competition dynamics apply, with massive stakes for both clubs.
Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.
Teamvergleich
Direkter Statistikvergleich
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machida Zelvia | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 15:7 | 17 |
| 2 | Vissel Kobe | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14:7 | 16 |
| 3 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 10:6 | 15 |
| 4 | Buriram United F.C. | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10:8 | 14 |
| 5 | Melbourne City | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 9:7 | 14 |
| 6 | Johor DT | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8:7 | 11 |
| 7 | Seoul | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10:9 | 10 |
| 8 | Gangwon | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9:11 | 9 |
| 9 | Ulsan Hyundai | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6:8 | 9 |
| 10 | Chengdu Rongcheng | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7:11 | 6 |
| 11 | Shanghai Shenhua | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5:13 | 4 |
| 12 | Shanghai Port | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2:11 | 4 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Hilal | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 17:6 | 22 |
| 2 | Al Ahli SC | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 21:9 | 17 |
| 3 | Tractor | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 12:4 | 17 |
| 4 | Al Ittihad | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 22:9 | 15 |
| 5 | Al Wahda | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11:7 | 14 |
| 6 | Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 14:14 | 11 |
| 7 | Al-Duhail | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 16:16 | 8 |
| 8 | Al-Sadd | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 12:16 | 8 |
| 9 | Al Sharjah | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8:16 | 8 |
| 10 | Al-Gharafa | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 7:21 | 6 |
| 11 | Al Shorta | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6:20 | 5 |
| 12 | Nasaf Qarshi | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9:17 | 4 |