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Motagua vs Alajuelense - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

North & Central America North & Central America

CONCACAF Central American Cup Estadio Nacional Chelato Ucles, Tegucigalpa
Jum, 23 Okt 2026
VS
01.00 AM
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Ringkasan Pertandingan

The first leg ended 1-2. The second leg of this knockout tie follows. Recent head-to-head results give a strong hint here. Motagua have averaged 1.5 scored and 0.83 conceded recently, against Alajuelense's 1.71 scored and 1.14 conceded. Head-to-head, Motagua have won 1 to Alajuelense's 4, with 0 draws. They last met on 1 Okt 2025, ending 1:2. The numbers (1.31 xG vs 1.06) point toward Motagua. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Peluang Kemenangan

Dihasilkan dari 10.000 simulasi berdasarkan performa & keuntungan kandang

31%
Motagua
39%
Seri
30%
Alajuelense
Proyeksi hasil seri: 39% Unggulan: Draw

Keyakinan Model

Skor indikator gabungan

65% / Sedang Keyakinan
  • Motagua carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Motagua have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Alajuelense, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Tingkat konversi tinggi memprediksi laga banyak gol (Peluang Over 2.5: 78%).
  • Alajuelense have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Peluang Gol

Estimasi model untuk pasar gol berdasarkan riwayat xG

Lebih dari 0.5 Gol 92%
Lebih dari 1.5 Gol 82%
Lebih dari 2.5 Gol 78%
Lebih dari 3.5 Gol 25%
Lebih dari 4.5 Gol 11%
Kedua Tim Cetak Gol (BTTS) 73.8%
Motagua Tanpa Kebobolan 20%
Alajuelense Tanpa Kebobolan 10%

Analisis Performa Terakhir

Rata-rata per laga

Metrik Motagua Alajuelense
Main 30 28
Menang 15 12
Seri 7 8
Kalah 8 8
Gol Masuk 1.5 1.71
Gol Kemasukan 0.83 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.06
Expected Goals Kemasukan (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Tingkat keberhasilan historis di pasaran utama

1 Okt 2025 CONCACAF Central American Cup
Motagua vs Alajuelense
1:2
24 Sep 2025 CONCACAF Central American Cup
Alajuelense vs Motagua
0:1
1 Sep 2023 CONCACAF Central American Cup
Alajuelense vs Motagua
5:1
30 Sep 2011 CONCACAF Champions Cup
Alajuelense vs Motagua
1:0
16 Sep 2011 CONCACAF Champions Cup
Motagua vs Alajuelense
2:4

Indeks Momentum SokaPicks

Indeks performa saat ini disesuaikan dengan stamina & lawan (0-100)

Motagua 32 / 100
Alajuelense 29 / 100
Cara menghitungnya: Formula tertimbang berdasarkan tren performa (60%), gol (20%), kandang/tandang (10%) dan ketersediaan pemain (10%).

Indeks Kemampuan Serangan & Pertahanan

MENYERANG BERTAHAN PENGUASAAN KEDISIPLINAN
Motagua Alajuelense

Prediksi Mesin

Frekuensi prediksi skor dan pasaran utama

Pilihan Utama Alajuelense Win (2)
Pilihan Kedua Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
Prediksi BTTS Yes (GG)
Pasaran Over/Under Over 2.5

Insight Pintar

Pola unik yang terdeteksi otomatis

Alajuelense's defensive record shows goals conceded in 82% of 28 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Motagua scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Motagua went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Tren Skor

Motagua VS Alajuelense
1.25 Gol Dicetak 1.75
0.38 Gol Kebobolan 1.38
50% Atas 1.5 100%
38% Atas 2.5 50%
0% Atas 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Motagua

(Home)
17 Oct
Platense
0 : 2
Motagua
10 Oct
Motagua
2 : 1
CD Choloma
20 Sept
Real Espana
1 : 0
Motagua
17 Sept
Alianza FC
0 : 0
Motagua
13 Sept
Motagua
1 : 0
Genesis FC
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Alajuelense

(Away)
18 Oct
Inter San Carlos
2 : 3
Alajuelense
15 Oct
Alajuelense
1 : 1
Herediano
10 Oct
Puntarenas FC
1 : 1
Alajuelense
20 Sept
Alajuelense
5 : 0
Inter San Carlos
18 Sept
Alajuelense
3 : 1
Marathon
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Olimpia 6
Luis Angel Firpo 0
Cartagines 5
Saprissa 4
Alajuelense 5
Marathon 3
Alianza FC 0
Motagua 3
Semi-finals
Olimpia -
Cartagines -
Alajuelense -
Motagua -
Final
TBD -
TBD -