Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Aguilas Doradas vs Alianza

Colombia Colombia

Primera A Estadio Alberto Grisales
Vårt Tips

Kampsammendrag

This Primera A encounter between Aguilas Doradas and Alianza promises to be a closely contested affair, with win probabilities pointing to an even matchup. Aguilas Doradas averages 1.3 goals scored and 1.2 conceded in recent matches. Alianza shows a form average of 0.8 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 2 wins for Aguilas Doradas, 2 wins for Alianza, and 1 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 27.03.26 ended in a 1:0 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 1.19 for Aguilas Doradas and 1.50 for Alianza, suggesting the primary value lies in the Aguilas Doradas double chance or over markets.

Seierssannsynlighet

Beregnet fra 10 000 simulerte kamper basert på hjemmebanefordel og form

42%
Aguilas Doradas
28%
Uavgjort
30%
Alianza
Uavgjort-prognose: 28% Favoritt: Aguilas Doradas

Modellens Sikkerhet

Aggregert sikkerhetsskår

74% / Middels Sikkerhet
  • Aguilas Doradas har tatt flere poeng i det siste sammenlignet med Alianza.
  • Modellen forventer høyere målfarlighet for vertene (1.19 vs 1.50 xG).
  • Historikken viser en tydelig fordel for hjemmelaget.
  • Sterke forsvar taler for en kontrollert og målfattig kamp.

Målsannsynlighet

Forventninger for målmarkeder basert på xG-historie

Over 0.5 Mål 91%
Over 1.5 Mål 63%
Over 2.5 Mål 40%
Over 3.5 Mål 24%
Over 4.5 Mål 12%
Begge lag scorer (BTTS) 46%
Aguilas Doradas Rent bur 16%
Alianza Rent bur 12%
Mål 1. omgang 57%
Mål 2. omgang 60%

Siste Formanalyse

Snitt per kamp

Metrikk Aguilas Doradas Alianza
Kamper Spilt 30 30
Seire 12 8
Uavgjort 9 10
Tap 9 12
Mål Scoret 1.33 0.83
Mål Sluppet Inn 1.23 1.13
Forventede Mål (xG) 1.38 1.25
Forventede Mål Sluppet Inn (xGA) 1.75 1.00

H2H

Historiske suksessrater i nøkkelmarkeder

27.03.26 Primera A
Aguilas Doradas vs Alianza
1:0
18.10.25 Primera A
Aguilas Doradas vs Alianza
1:0
04.06.25 Copa Colombia
Alianza vs Aguilas Doradas
4:0
26.04.25 Primera A
Alianza vs Aguilas Doradas
0:0
06.11.24 Primera A
Alianza vs Aguilas Doradas
3:0

Taktisk Profil

Posisjonering og Kontrollstil

Aguilas Doradas

Pressintensitet Medium blokk
Angrepsstil Hurtige kontringer
Flügelspill-Frekvens Spill gjennom midten
Forsvarsoppstilling Høy forsvarslinje (Offside-felle)
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Alianza

Pressintensitet Medium blokk
Angrepsstil Hurtige kontringer
Flügelspill-Frekvens Spill gjennom midten
Forsvarsoppstilling Ligge dypt
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Sokapicks Momentum-Indeks

Akkumulert formindeks justert for motstander og slitasje (0-100)

Aguilas Doradas 41 / 100
Alianza 29 / 100
Slik kalkuleres det: Vektet formel av formkurve (60%), måldifferanser (20%), hjemmebanefordel (10%) og fravær (10%).

Angreps- og Forsvarsstyrke

ANGREP FORSVAR POSSESJON DISIPLIN
Aguilas Doradas Alianza

Modell-Prognose

Resultatfrekvenser og hovedmarkeder

Hovedtips Double Chance: Aguilas Doradas or Draw (1X)
Sekundærtips Under 3.5 Goals
Halvtidstips Home Win (HT)
BTTS Prognose No (NG)
Over/Under Tips Under 2.5

Value Bet Finder (+EV)

Spill med statistisk verdi mot bookmakerne

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +23.5%
2.94
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +17.6%
2.94
*EV represents Erventet verdi. Positiv edge betyr at bookmakerne priser spillet for lavt.

Erventet Kampforløp

Dominanskurver i 15-minutters bolker

0' - 15' Dominansindeks

Both sides are expected to start cautiously, looking to control the midfield battle.

Aguilas Doradas 46%
Alianza 24%
15' - 30' Dominansindeks

The game is expected to settle into a tactical block, with both managers looking for space on the flanks.

Aguilas Doradas 40%
Alianza 32%
30' - 45' Dominansindeks

The tempo could accelerate as both teams push for an opening goal before half-time.

Aguilas Doradas 42%
Alianza 30%
45' - 60' Dominansindeks

Expect tactical adjustments from both sides, possibly shifting to a wider play style.

Aguilas Doradas 44%
Alianza 29%
60' - 75' Dominansindeks

As players tire, spaces will open up, leading to transitional counter-attacks for both teams.

Aguilas Doradas 38%
Alianza 33%
75' - 90' Dominansindeks

A high-risk final phase where any defensive lapse could lead to late drama and decide the match.

Aguilas Doradas 48%
Alianza 35%

Angreps-Heatmaps & Skudd

Varmekart generert fra sone-statistikk

Aguilas Doradas angriper → ← angriper Alianza

Smart Innsikt

Mønstre oppdaget automatisk av systemet

Aguilas Doradas have found the net in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Alianza have conceded at least one goal in 73% of their last 30 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 1.80 goals per match.

Aguilas Doradas remained undefeated in 5 of their last 5 overall matchups.

Alianza suffered defeat in 1 of their last 5 overall games.

Risikoanalyse

Analyse av mulige forstyrrelser og ytre omstendigheter

Risikonivå: Moderat
Risikofaktor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risikofaktor

Standard league campaign fixture. Both teams have strong incentives to secure maximum points for table positioning.

Risikofaktor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Teamvergleich

Statistikk-sammenligning

45 Poeng siste 5 34
1.38 Forventede mål (xG) 1.25
1.75 Forventede mål sluppet inn (xGA) 1.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Atl. Nacional19131535:1540
2Junior19112631:2435
3Dep. Pasto19104529:2534
4America De Cali19103625:1533
5Once Caldas1989231:2233
6Deportes Tolima1987427:1731
7Santa Fe1978429:2229
8Inter Bogotá1977526:2628
9Dep. Cali1976620:1627
10Millonarios1975731:2326
11Ind. Medellin1975726:2426
12Aguilas Doradas1975720:2526
13Bucaramanga1958626:2023
14Llaneros19410517:2022
15Fortaleza C.E.I.F.1957722:2722
16Jaguares de Cordoba19531120:3318
17Alianza1938813:2717
18Chico19521215:3217
19Cucuta1937922:3516
20Dep. Pereira19171115:3210