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Africa

Africa Cup of Nations 2025 Stade Félix Houphouët-Boigny

Malawi

Vårt Tips

Sammendrag Seier Mål Form H2H Taktikk Spillere Indekser Tips Kampforløp Varmekart Risiko Presisjon Sammenlign

Kampsammendrag

This Africa Cup of Nations 2025 encounter between Burundi and Malawi promises to be a closely contested affair, with win probabilities pointing to an even matchup. Burundi averages 1.1 goals scored and 1.3 conceded in recent matches. Malawi shows a form average of 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 1 wins for Burundi, 0 wins for Malawi, and 1 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 14.11.24 ended in a 0:0 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 0.94 for Burundi and 1.25 for Malawi, suggesting the primary value lies in the Burundi double chance or over markets.

Seierssannsynlighet

Beregnet fra 10 000 simulerte kamper basert på hjemmebanefordel og form

48%

Burundi

17%

Uavgjort

35%

Malawi

Uavgjort-prognose: 17% Favoritt: Burundi

Modellens Sikkerhet

Aggregert sikkerhetsskår

75% / Høy Sikkerhet

Burundi har tatt flere poeng i det siste sammenlignet med Malawi.
Modellen forventer høyere målfarlighet for vertene (0.94 vs 1.25 xG).
Historikken viser en tydelig fordel for hjemmelaget.
Sterke forsvar taler for en kontrollert og målfattig kamp.

Målsannsynlighet

Forventninger for målmarkeder basert på xG-historie

Over 0.5 Mål 91%

Over 1.5 Mål 56%

Over 2.5 Mål 39%

Over 3.5 Mål 23%

Over 4.5 Mål 12%

Begge lag scorer (BTTS) 25%

Burundi Rent bur 19%

Malawi Rent bur 16%

Mål 1. omgang 50%

Mål 2. omgang 53%

Siste Formanalyse

Snitt per kamp

Metrikk	Burundi	Malawi
Kamper Spilt	28	31
Seire	9	8
Uavgjort	4	6
Tap	15	17
Mål Scoret	1.14	0.81
Mål Sluppet Inn	1.29	1.16
Forventede Mål (xG)	1.00	1.13
Forventede Mål Sluppet Inn (xGA)	1.38	0.88

H2H

Historiske suksessrater i nøkkelmarkeder

14.11.24 Africa Cup of Nations

Burundi vs Malawi

Ballbesittelse: 59% - 47% Kort: 2 - 1

0:0

05.09.24 Africa Cup of Nations

Malawi vs Burundi

Ballbesittelse: 45% - 54% Kort: 2 - 2

2:3

Taktisk Profil

Posisjonering og Kontrollstil

Burundi

Pressintensitet Medium blokk

Angrepsstil Hurtige kontringer

Flügelspill-Frekvens Spill gjennom midten

Forsvarsoppstilling Høy forsvarslinje (Offside-felle)

Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Malawi

Pressintensitet Medium blokk

Angrepsstil Hurtige kontringer

Flügelspill-Frekvens Spill gjennom midten

Forsvarsoppstilling Ligge dypt

Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Sokapicks Momentum-Indeks

Akkumulert formindeks justert for motstander og slitasje (0-100)

Burundi 47 / 100

Malawi 35 / 100

Slik kalkuleres det: Vektet formel av formkurve (60%), måldifferanser (20%), hjemmebanefordel (10%) og fravær (10%).

Angreps- og Forsvarsstyrke

Burundi Malawi

Modell-Prognose

Resultatfrekvenser og hovedmarkeder

Hovedtips Double Chance: Burundi or Draw (1X)

Sekundærtips Under 3.5 Goals

Halvtidstips Home Win (HT)

BTTS Prognose No (NG)

Over/Under Tips Under 2.5

Value Bet Finder (+EV)

Spill med statistisk verdi mot bookmakerne

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +20%

2.50

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +18.2%

3.03

*EV represents Erventet verdi. Positiv edge betyr at bookmakerne priser spillet for lavt.

Erventet Kampforløp

Dominanskurver i 15-minutters bolker

0' - 15' Dominansindeks

Both sides are expected to start cautiously, looking to control the midfield battle.

Burundi 53%

Malawi 28%

15' - 30' Dominansindeks

The game is expected to settle into a tactical block, with both managers looking for space on the flanks.

Burundi 46%

Malawi 37%

30' - 45' Dominansindeks

The tempo could accelerate as both teams push for an opening goal before half-time.

Burundi 48%

Malawi 35%

45' - 60' Dominansindeks

Expect tactical adjustments from both sides, possibly shifting to a wider play style.

Burundi 50%

Malawi 33%

60' - 75' Dominansindeks

As players tire, spaces will open up, leading to transitional counter-attacks for both teams.

Burundi 43%

Malawi 39%

75' - 90' Dominansindeks

A high-risk final phase where any defensive lapse could lead to late drama and decide the match.

Burundi 55%

Malawi 40%

Angreps-Heatmaps & Skudd

Varmekart generert fra sone-statistikk

Burundi angriper → ← angriper Malawi

Smart Innsikt

Mønstre oppdaget automatisk av systemet

Burundi have found the net in 43% of their last 28 matches.

Malawi have conceded at least one goal in 68% of their last 31 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 2.50 goals per match.

Burundi remained undefeated in 2 of their last 5 overall matchups.

Malawi suffered defeat in 3 of their last 5 overall games.

Risikoanalyse

Analyse av mulige forstyrrelser og ytre omstendigheter

Risikonivå: Moderat

Risikofaktor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risikofaktor

Knockout cup fixture where progress is the sole objective; expect high motivation and potential extra time drama.

Risikofaktor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Teamvergleich

Statistikk-sammenligning

31 Poeng siste 5 30

1.00 Forventede mål (xG) 1.13

1.38 Forventede mål sluppet inn (xGA) 0.88

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Comoros	6	3	3	0	7:4	12
2	Tunisia	6	3	1	2	7:6	10
3	Gambia	6	2	2	2	6:6	8
4	Madagascar	6	0	2	4	4:8	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Morocco	6	6	0	0	26:2	18
2	Gabon	6	3	1	2	7:9	10
3	Lesotho	6	1	1	4	2:13	4
4	Central Africa	6	1	0	5	3:14	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Egypt	6	4	2	0	12:2	14
2	Botswana	6	2	2	2	4:7	8
3	Mauritania	6	2	1	3	3:6	7
4	Cape Verde	6	1	1	4	3:7	4

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Nigeria	6	3	2	1	9:3	11
2	Benin	6	2	2	2	7:7	8
3	Rwanda	6	2	2	2	5:7	8
4	Libya	6	1	2	3	3:7	5

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Algeria	6	5	1	0	16:2	16
2	Equatorial Guinea	6	2	2	2	5:8	8
3	Togo	6	1	2	3	7:10	5
4	Liberia	6	1	1	4	4:12	4

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Angola	6	4	2	0	7:2	14
2	Sudan	6	2	2	2	4:6	8
3	Niger	6	2	1	3	7:6	7
4	Ghana	6	0	3	3	3:7	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Zambia	6	4	1	1	7:4	13
2	Ivory Coast	6	4	0	2	12:3	12
3	Sierra Leone	6	1	2	3	5:10	5
4	Chad	6	0	3	3	1:8	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	D.R. Congo	6	4	0	2	7:3	12
2	Tanzania	6	3	1	2	5:4	10
3	Guinea	6	3	0	3	9:5	9
4	Ethiopia	6	1	1	4	3:12	4

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Mali	6	4	2	0	10:1	14
2	Mozambique	6	3	2	1	9:5	11
3	Guinea Bissau	6	1	2	3	4:6	5
4	Eswatini	6	0	2	4	2:13	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cameroon	6	4	2	0	8:2	14
2	Zimbabwe	6	2	3	1	6:4	9
3	Kenya	6	1	3	2	4:7	6
4	Namibia	6	0	2	4	2:7	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	South Africa	6	4	2	0	16:5	14
2	Uganda	6	4	1	1	8:5	13
3	Congo	6	1	1	4	4:12	4
4	South Sudan	6	1	0	5	6:12	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Senegal	6	5	1	0	10:1	16
2	Burkina Faso	6	3	1	2	10:7	10
3	Burundi	6	1	1	4	4:11	4
4	Malawi	6	1	1	4	6:11	4