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Caerphilly vs Chepstow Town - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Wales Wales

FAW Welsh Cup
lør. 17. okt. 2026
VS
01:00 p.m.
Vårt Tips

Kampsammendrag

A one-off knockout match in the FAW Welsh Cup. Both sides' recent runs tell most of the story. Caerphilly have averaged 1.33 scored and 2.2 conceded recently, against Chepstow Town's 1.94 scored and 1.76 conceded. These two haven't met recently, so form does most of the talking. xG projections (0.74 - 2.07) back Chepstow Town to edge this. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Seierssannsynlighet

Beregnet fra 10 000 simulerte kamper basert på hjemmebanefordel og form

4%
Caerphilly
6%
Uavgjort
90%
Chepstow Town
Uavgjort-prognose: 6% Favoritt: Chepstow Town

Modellens Sikkerhet

Aggregert sikkerhetsskår

95% / Svært Høy Sikkerhet
  • Chepstow Town carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Chepstow Town a 90% chance of winning this.
  • Chepstow Town arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • These two have never met before — a fresh matchup with no historical pattern to lean on.
  • Høy effektivitet tyder på en målrik kamp (Sannsynlighet for Over 2.5: 78%).

Målsannsynlighet

Forventninger for målmarkeder basert på xG-historie

Over 0.5 Mål 92%
Over 1.5 Mål 82%
Over 2.5 Mål 78%
Over 3.5 Mål 34%
Over 4.5 Mål 15%
Begge lag scorer (BTTS) 73.4%
Caerphilly Rent bur 10%
Chepstow Town Rent bur 19%

Siste Formanalyse

Snitt per kamp

Metrikk Caerphilly Chepstow Town
Kamper Spilt 15 17
Seire 4 9
Uavgjort 2 0
Tap 9 8
Mål Scoret 1.33 1.94
Mål Sluppet Inn 2.2 1.76
Forventede Mål (xG) 0.74 2.07
Forventede Mål Sluppet Inn (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historiske suksessrater i nøkkelmarkeder

SokaPicks Momentum-Indeks

Akkumulert formindeks justert for motstander og slitasje (0-100)

Caerphilly 10 / 100
Chepstow Town 85 / 100
Slik kalkuleres det: Vektet formel av formkurve (60%), måldifferanser (20%), hjemmebanefordel (10%) og fravær (10%).

Angreps- og Forsvarsstyrke

ANGREP FORSVAR POSSESJON DISIPLIN
Caerphilly Chepstow Town

Modell-Prognose

Resultatfrekvenser og hovedmarkeder

Hovedtips Chepstow Town Win (2)
Sekundærtips Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Prognose Yes (GG)
Over/Under Tips Over 2.5

Smart Innsikt

Mønstre oppdaget automatisk av systemet

Caerphilly found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (15 games).

Chepstow Town has conceded goals in 71% of their last 17 outings.

Chepstow Town lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Caerphilly has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Måltrender

Caerphilly VS Chepstow Town
0.63 Mål scoret 2.14
2 Mål sluppet inn 0.86
75% Over 1.5 57%
75% Over 2.5 57%
25% Over 3.5 43%

Recent Form & Match History

Caerphilly

(Home)
09 Oct
Caerphilly
3 : 2
Newport City
03 Oct
Pure Swansea
3 : 1
Caerphilly
25 Sept
Caerphilly
1 : 2
Pontypridd United
12 Sept
Caerphilly
2 : 3
Aberystwyth
04 Sept
Trethomas Bluebirds
2 : 2
Caerphilly
Page 1 of 3

Chepstow Town

(Away)
21 Sept
Chepstow Town
0 : 1
Pill
11 Nov
South Gower AFC
3 : 2
Chepstow Town
14 Oct
Chepstow Town
4 : 0
Abercarn United
16 Sept
Chepstow Town
7 : 0
Pill
08 Oct
Chepstow Town
1 : 2
Pontypridd United
Page 1 of 4

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
Airbus UK Broughton FC -
TNS -
Coedpoeth -
Guilsfield -
Llannefydd -
Llandudno FC -
Newtown -
Llanuwchllyn -
Bala -
Holyhead -
Connahs Q. -
Porthmadog -
Penycae FC -
Dolgellau Athletic -
Aberystwyth -
Prestatyn -
Flint Town -
Caernarfon -
Llay Welfare -
Holywell Town FC -
Buckley -
Colwyn Bay -
Brickfield Rangers -
Llangefni -
Denbigh -
Bangor 1876 -
Cefn Albion -
Felinheli -
Llysfaen -
Mochdre Sports -
Pontarddulais -
Goytre Utd -
Trefelin -
Llantwit Major -
Afan Lido -
Penybont -
Caerau Ely -
Llanelli -
Blaen-y-Maes -
Ely Rangers -
Radnor Valley -
Cardiff Draconians -
Barry Town -
Tredegar Town -
Cwmaman Institute -
Ammanford Town -
Llangennech -
Pontardawe -
Caerphilly -
Chepstow Town -
Evans Williams -
Rockspur -
Briton Ferry -
Afan United -
Llantwit Fardre -
Baglan Dragons -
Cardiff Metropolitan University -
Ynyshir Albions -
Cambrian United -
Trethomas Bluebirds -
Carmarthen Town -
Newport City -
Haverfordwest -
Cardiff Corries -
1/16-finals
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1/8-finals
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Quarter-finals
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Semi-finals
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Final
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