Sport Picks
EL Nacional vs Cumbaya
Ecuador
Serie B Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa 
Kampsammendrag
This Serie B encounter between EL Nacional and Cumbaya promises to be a closely contested affair, with win probabilities pointing to an even matchup. EL Nacional averages 1.0 goals scored and 2.1 conceded in recent matches. Cumbaya shows a form average of 1.1 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 1 wins for EL Nacional, 3 wins for Cumbaya, and 1 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 24.04.26 ended in a 2:1 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 0.76 for EL Nacional and 1.50 for Cumbaya, suggesting the primary value lies in the Cumbaya double chance or over markets.
Seierssannsynlighet
Beregnet fra 10 000 simulerte kamper basert på hjemmebanefordel og form
Modellens Sikkerhet
Aggregert sikkerhetsskår
- EL Nacional har tatt flere poeng i det siste sammenlignet med Cumbaya.
- Modellen forventer høyere målfarlighet for vertene (0.76 vs 1.50 xG).
- Historikken viser en tydelig fordel for bortelaget.
- Sterke forsvar taler for en kontrollert og målfattig kamp.
Målsannsynlighet
Forventninger for målmarkeder basert på xG-historie
Siste Formanalyse
Snitt per kamp
| Metrikk | EL Nacional | Cumbaya |
|---|---|---|
| Kamper Spilt | 33 | 30 |
| Seire | 6 | 9 |
| Uavgjort | 7 | 10 |
| Tap | 20 | 11 |
| Mål Scoret | 1 | 1.13 |
| Mål Sluppet Inn | 2.09 | 1.3 |
| Forventede Mål (xG) | 0.63 | 0.75 |
| Forventede Mål Sluppet Inn (xGA) | 2.25 | 0.88 |
H2H
Historiske suksessrater i nøkkelmarkeder
Taktisk Profil
Posisjonering og Kontrollstil
EL Nacional
Cumbaya
Sokapicks Momentum-Indeks
Akkumulert formindeks justert for motstander og slitasje (0-100)
Angreps- og Forsvarsstyrke
Modell-Prognose
Resultatfrekvenser og hovedmarkeder
Value Bet Finder (+EV)
Spill med statistisk verdi mot bookmakerne
Erventet Kampforløp
Dominanskurver i 15-minutters bolker
Cumbaya will likely look to assert dominance early, testing the hosts' defensive structure.
EL Nacional will look to tighten their defensive lines to neutralize Cumbaya's early runs.
Expect Cumbaya to mount counter-attacks, exploiting gaps as EL Nacional tries to push forward.
Tactical adjustments will see Cumbaya increase their pressing intensity in the opposition half.
Fatigue may set in for EL Nacional's defense, opening up opportunities for Cumbaya's forward line.
Expect Cumbaya to manage the closing stages, while EL Nacional searches for late drama.
Angreps-Heatmaps & Skudd
Varmekart generert fra sone-statistikk
Smart Innsikt
Mønstre oppdaget automatisk av systemet
EL Nacional have found the net in 61% of their last 33 matches.
Cumbaya have conceded at least one goal in 70% of their last 30 fixtures.
Historical meetings between these sides average 2.60 goals per match.
EL Nacional remained undefeated in 1 of their last 5 overall matchups.
Cumbaya suffered defeat in 1 of their last 5 overall games.
Risikoanalyse
Analyse av mulige forstyrrelser og ytre omstendigheter
Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.
Standard league campaign fixture. Both teams have strong incentives to secure maximum points for table positioning.
Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.
Teamvergleich
Statistikk-sammenligning
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nueve de Octubre | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 18:10 | 28 |
| 2 | Atletico FC | 15 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 17:12 | 26 |
| 3 | Independiente Juniors | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 17:11 | 24 |
| 4 | Vinotinto | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 20:13 | 20 |
| 5 | CD Cuenca Juniors | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 16:18 | 20 |
| 6 | San Antonio | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 18:14 | 19 |
| 7 | Cumbaya | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 18:16 | 18 |
| 8 | Dep. Santo Domingo | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 12:10 | 18 |
| 9 | LDU Portoviejo | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 13:18 | 18 |
| 10 | Gualaceo | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 13:10 | 17 |
| 11 | 22 de Julio | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 8:21 | 6 |
| 12 | EL Nacional | 15 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 9:26 | 1 |