Sport Picks
Kampsammendrag
Homberg is highly favored to claim all three points on their visit to FSV Duisburg, backed by a win probability of 60%. FSV Duisburg averages 0.9 goals scored and 3.4 conceded in recent matches. Homberg shows a form average of 1.7 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 0 wins for FSV Duisburg, 3 wins for Homberg, and 2 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 30.07.23 ended in a 2:0 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 1.29 for FSV Duisburg and 0.99 for Homberg, suggesting the primary value lies in the Homberg double chance or over markets.
Seierssannsynlighet
Beregnet fra 10 000 simulerte kamper basert på hjemmebanefordel og form
Modellens Sikkerhet
Aggregert sikkerhetsskår
- FSV Duisburg har tatt flere poeng i det siste sammenlignet med Homberg.
- Modellen forventer høyere målfarlighet for vertene (1.29 vs 0.99 xG).
- Historikken viser en tydelig fordel for bortelaget.
- Høy effektivitet tyder på en målrik kamp (Sannsynlighet for Over 2.5: 68%).
Målsannsynlighet
Forventninger for målmarkeder basert på xG-historie
Siste Formanalyse
Snitt per kamp
| Metrikk | FSV Duisburg | Homberg |
|---|---|---|
| Kamper Spilt | 30 | 36 |
| Seire | 3 | 13 |
| Uavgjort | 4 | 8 |
| Tap | 23 | 15 |
| Mål Scoret | 0.9 | 1.72 |
| Mål Sluppet Inn | 3.4 | 1.61 |
H2H
Historiske suksessrater i nøkkelmarkeder
Taktisk Profil
Posisjonering og Kontrollstil
FSV Duisburg
Homberg
Nøkkelspiller-Analyse
Toppspillere og forventet involvering
FSV Duisburg Sammenlign
Homberg Sammenlign
Skadesituasjon
Sokapicks Momentum-Indeks
Akkumulert formindeks justert for motstander og slitasje (0-100)
Angreps- og Forsvarsstyrke
Modell-Prognose
Resultatfrekvenser og hovedmarkeder
Value Bet Finder (+EV)
Spill med statistisk verdi mot bookmakerne
Erventet Kampforløp
Dominanskurver i 15-minutters bolker
Homberg will likely look to assert dominance early, testing the hosts' defensive structure.
FSV Duisburg will look to tighten their defensive lines to neutralize Homberg's early runs.
Expect Homberg to mount counter-attacks, exploiting gaps as FSV Duisburg tries to push forward.
Tactical adjustments will see Homberg increase their pressing intensity in the opposition half.
Fatigue may set in for FSV Duisburg's defense, opening up opportunities for Homberg's forward line.
Expect Homberg to manage the closing stages, while FSV Duisburg searches for late drama.
Angreps-Heatmaps & Skudd
Varmekart generert fra sone-statistikk
Smart Innsikt
Mønstre oppdaget automatisk av systemet
FSV Duisburg have found the net in 57% of their last 30 matches.
Homberg have conceded at least one goal in 75% of their last 36 fixtures.
Historical meetings between these sides average 3.40 goals per match.
FSV Duisburg remained undefeated in 0 of their last 5 overall matchups.
Homberg suffered defeat in 4 of their last 5 overall games.
Risikoanalyse
Analyse av mulige forstyrrelser og ytre omstendigheter
Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.
Standard league campaign fixture. Both teams have strong incentives to secure maximum points for table positioning.
Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.
Teamvergleich
Statistikk-sammenligning
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SSVg Velbert | 40 | 29 | 7 | 4 | 93:33 | 94 |
| 2 | Hilden | 40 | 23 | 10 | 7 | 89:45 | 79 |
| 3 | TVD Velbert | 40 | 23 | 9 | 8 | 86:46 | 78 |
| 4 | Germania Ratingen | 40 | 22 | 8 | 10 | 79:55 | 74 |
| 5 | SW Essen | 40 | 22 | 7 | 11 | 84:52 | 73 |
| 6 | Uerdingen | 40 | 21 | 9 | 10 | 80:58 | 72 |
| 7 | Schonnebeck | 40 | 19 | 4 | 17 | 84:70 | 61 |
| 8 | Meerbusch | 40 | 16 | 11 | 13 | 81:67 | 59 |
| 9 | Baumberg | 40 | 16 | 10 | 14 | 78:54 | 58 |
| 10 | Hamborn | 40 | 16 | 8 | 16 | 77:79 | 56 |
| 11 | Union Nettetal | 40 | 15 | 10 | 15 | 65:72 | 55 |
| 12 | Homberg | 40 | 14 | 12 | 14 | 68:57 | 54 |
| 13 | Sonsbeck | 40 | 14 | 11 | 15 | 71:68 | 53 |
| 14 | SC St.Tonis | 40 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 59:60 | 53 |
| 15 | Kleve | 40 | 14 | 10 | 16 | 67:77 | 52 |
| 16 | MSV Dusseldorf | 40 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 71:68 | 50 |
| 17 | FC Monheim | 40 | 10 | 12 | 18 | 58:76 | 42 |
| 18 | Cronenberger | 40 | 8 | 6 | 26 | 38:87 | 30 |
| 19 | TuRU Dusseldorf | 40 | 7 | 8 | 25 | 35:85 | 29 |
| 20 | Kray | 40 | 6 | 6 | 28 | 47:110 | 24 |
| 21 | FSV Duisburg | 40 | 4 | 6 | 30 | 36:127 | 18 |