Sport Picks

Stadium Background

North Macedonia vs Latvia

Europe Europe

UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 National Arena Toshe Proeski
Vårt Tips

Kampsammendrag

This UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 encounter between North Macedonia and Latvia promises to be a closely contested affair, with win probabilities pointing to an even matchup. North Macedonia averages 1.2 goals scored and 1.3 conceded in recent matches. Latvia shows a form average of 0.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 4 wins for North Macedonia, 0 wins for Latvia, and 1 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 13.11.25 ended in a 0:0 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 1.25 for North Macedonia and 1.19 for Latvia, suggesting the primary value lies in the North Macedonia double chance or over markets.

Seierssannsynlighet

Beregnet fra 10 000 simulerte kamper basert på hjemmebanefordel og form

50%
North Macedonia
27%
Uavgjort
23%
Latvia
Uavgjort-prognose: 27% Favoritt: North Macedonia

Modellens Sikkerhet

Aggregert sikkerhetsskår

82% / Høy Sikkerhet
  • North Macedonia har tatt flere poeng i det siste sammenlignet med Latvia.
  • Modellen forventer høyere målfarlighet for vertene (1.25 vs 1.19 xG).
  • Historikken viser en tydelig fordel for hjemmelaget.
  • Sterke forsvar taler for en kontrollert og målfattig kamp.

Målsannsynlighet

Forventninger for målmarkeder basert på xG-historie

Over 0.5 Mål 92%
Over 1.5 Mål 68%
Over 2.5 Mål 35%
Over 3.5 Mål 21%
Over 4.5 Mål 11%
Begge lag scorer (BTTS) 34%
North Macedonia Rent bur 20%
Latvia Rent bur 11%
Mål 1. omgang 61%
Mål 2. omgang 65%

Siste Formanalyse

Snitt per kamp

Metrikk North Macedonia Latvia
Kamper Spilt 30 30
Seire 10 6
Uavgjort 11 7
Tap 9 17
Mål Scoret 1.17 0.57
Mål Sluppet Inn 1.27 1.6
Forventede Mål (xG) 1.00 0.63
Forventede Mål Sluppet Inn (xGA) 1.75 1.50

H2H

Historiske suksessrater i nøkkelmarkeder

13.11.25 Friendly International
North Macedonia vs Latvia
0:0
14.11.24 UEFA Nations League
North Macedonia vs Latvia
1:0
10.10.24 UEFA Nations League
Latvia vs North Macedonia
0:3
09.09.19 Euro
Latvia vs North Macedonia
0:2
21.03.19 Euro
North Macedonia vs Latvia
3:1

Taktisk Profil

Posisjonering og Kontrollstil

North Macedonia

Pressintensitet Medium blokk
Angrepsstil Hurtige kontringer
Flügelspill-Frekvens Spill gjennom midten
Forsvarsoppstilling Høy forsvarslinje (Offside-felle)
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Latvia

Pressintensitet Medium blokk
Angrepsstil Hurtige kontringer
Flügelspill-Frekvens Spill gjennom midten
Forsvarsoppstilling Høy forsvarslinje (Offside-felle)
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Nøkkelspiller-Analyse

Toppspillere og forventet involvering

North Macedonia Sammenlign

Toppscorer Serafimov N.
1 Mål
Assister N/A
0 Ast
Snitt xG / kamp 0.77
Snitt xA / kamp 0.5

Latvia Sammenlign

Toppscorer N/A
0 Mål
Assister N/A
0 Ast
Snitt xG / kamp 0.57
Snitt xA / kamp 0.35

Skadesituasjon

No availability alerts or suspensions reported for this fixture.

Sokapicks Momentum-Indeks

Akkumulert formindeks justert for motstander og slitasje (0-100)

North Macedonia 49 / 100
Latvia 23 / 100
Slik kalkuleres det: Vektet formel av formkurve (60%), måldifferanser (20%), hjemmebanefordel (10%) og fravær (10%).

Angreps- og Forsvarsstyrke

ANGREP FORSVAR POSSESJON DISIPLIN
North Macedonia Latvia

Modell-Prognose

Resultatfrekvenser og hovedmarkeder

Hovedtips Double Chance: North Macedonia or Draw (1X)
Sekundærtips Under 3.5 Goals
Halvtidstips Home Win (HT)
BTTS Prognose No (NG)
Over/Under Tips Under 2.5

Value Bet Finder (+EV)

Spill med statistisk verdi mot bookmakerne

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +19%
2.38
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +20.8%
3.45
*EV represents Erventet verdi. Positiv edge betyr at bookmakerne priser spillet for lavt.

Erventet Kampforløp

Dominanskurver i 15-minutters bolker

0' - 15' Dominansindeks

North Macedonia is expected to start with high intensity, putting pressure on the visitors early.

North Macedonia 55%
Latvia 18%
15' - 30' Dominansindeks

Latvia will try to absorb the pressure and slow down the tempo of North Macedonia's attacks.

North Macedonia 48%
Latvia 24%
30' - 45' Dominansindeks

Expect North Macedonia to create chances through sustained possession before the break.

North Macedonia 50%
Latvia 23%
45' - 60' Dominansindeks

Tactical adjustments at half-time will see North Macedonia vary their attacking width.

North Macedonia 53%
Latvia 22%
60' - 75' Dominansindeks

Fatigue may set in for Latvia, allowing North Macedonia's midfield to exploit vertical gaps.

North Macedonia 45%
Latvia 25%
75' - 90' Dominansindeks

Expect a final offensive push from North Macedonia, while Latvia takes risks to salvage a result.

North Macedonia 57%
Latvia 26%

Angreps-Heatmaps & Skudd

Varmekart generert fra sone-statistikk

North Macedonia angriper → ← angriper Latvia

Smart Innsikt

Mønstre oppdaget automatisk av systemet

North Macedonia have found the net in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Latvia have conceded at least one goal in 73% of their last 30 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 2.00 goals per match.

North Macedonia remained undefeated in 2 of their last 5 overall matchups.

Latvia suffered defeat in 3 of their last 5 overall games.

Risikoanalyse

Analyse av mulige forstyrrelser og ytre omstendigheter

Risikonivå: Lav
Risikofaktor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risikofaktor

Continental tournament fixture. Elite European competition dynamics apply, with massive stakes for both clubs.

Risikofaktor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Teamvergleich

Statistikk-sammenligning

41 Poeng siste 5 25
1.00 Forventede mål (xG) 0.63
1.75 Forventede mål sluppet inn (xGA) 1.50

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Sweden651019:416
2Slovakia641110:513
3Estonia61143:94
4Azerbaijan60153:171
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Romania660018:318
2Kosovo640210:712
3Cyprus62044:156
4Lithuania60064:110
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Northern Ireland632111:311
2Bulgaria62313:69
3Belarus61413:47
4Luxembourg60333:73
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1North Macedonia651010:116
2Armenia62138:97
3Faroe Islands61325:66
4Latvia61144:114