Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Poland vs Turkey

World World

Friendly International 2024 PGE Narodowy
2 - 1
Slutt
Vårt Tips

Kampsammendrag

This Friendly International 2024 encounter between Poland and Turkey promises to be a closely contested affair, with win probabilities pointing to an even matchup. Poland averages 1.7 goals scored and 1.4 conceded in recent matches. Turkey shows a form average of 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 4 wins for Poland, 1 wins for Turkey, and 0 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 10.06.24 ended in a 2:1 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 1.44 for Poland and 1.94 for Turkey, suggesting the primary value lies in the Turkey double chance or over markets.

Seierssannsynlighet

Beregnet fra 10 000 simulerte kamper basert på hjemmebanefordel og form

42%
Poland
15%
Uavgjort
43%
Turkey
Uavgjort-prognose: 15% Favoritt: Turkey

Modellens Sikkerhet

Aggregert sikkerhetsskår

69% / Middels Sikkerhet
  • Poland har tatt flere poeng i det siste sammenlignet med Turkey.
  • Modellen forventer høyere målfarlighet for vertene (1.44 vs 1.94 xG).
  • Historikken viser en tydelig fordel for bortelaget.
  • Høy effektivitet tyder på en målrik kamp (Sannsynlighet for Over 2.5: 59%).

Målsannsynlighet

Forventninger for målmarkeder basert på xG-historie

Over 0.5 Mål 91%
Over 1.5 Mål 79%
Over 2.5 Mål 59%
Over 3.5 Mål 35%
Over 4.5 Mål 18%
Begge lag scorer (BTTS) 61%
Poland Rent bur 10%
Turkey Rent bur 10%
Mål 1. omgang 71%
Mål 2. omgang 75%

Siste Formanalyse

Snitt per kamp

Metrikk Poland Turkey
Kamper Spilt 30 31
Seire 14 18
Uavgjort 7 5
Tap 9 8
Mål Scoret 1.67 1.77
Mål Sluppet Inn 1.4 1.23
Forventede Mål (xG) 1.63 2.50
Forventede Mål Sluppet Inn (xGA) 1.38 1.25

H2H

Historiske suksessrater i nøkkelmarkeder

10.06.24 Friendly International
Poland vs Turkey
2:1
26.10.93 World Championship
Turkey vs Poland
2:1
22.09.92 World Championship
Poland vs Turkey
1:0
17.04.91 Euro
Poland vs Turkey
3:0
14.11.90 Euro
Turkey vs Poland
0:1

Taktisk Profil

Posisjonering og Kontrollstil

Poland

Pressintensitet Aggressivt press (PPDA < 9.5)
Angrepsstil Holde på ballen
Flügelspill-Frekvens Mye innlegg
Forsvarsoppstilling Høy forsvarslinje (Offside-felle)
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Turkey

Pressintensitet Aggressivt press (PPDA < 9.5)
Angrepsstil Holde på ballen
Flügelspill-Frekvens Mye innlegg
Forsvarsoppstilling Ligge dypt
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Nøkkelspiller-Analyse

Toppspillere og forventet involvering

Poland Sammenlign

Toppscorer Swiderski K.
1 Mål
Assister Zalewski N.
1 Ast
Snitt xG / kamp 1.25
Snitt xA / kamp 0.81

Turkey Sammenlign

Toppscorer Yilmaz B.
1 Mål
Assister N/A
0 Ast
Snitt xG / kamp 2.27
Snitt xA / kamp 1.39

Skadesituasjon

No availability alerts or suspensions reported for this fixture.

Sokapicks Momentum-Indeks

Akkumulert formindeks justert for motstander og slitasje (0-100)

Poland 40 / 100
Turkey 41 / 100
Slik kalkuleres det: Vektet formel av formkurve (60%), måldifferanser (20%), hjemmebanefordel (10%) og fravær (10%).

Angreps- og Forsvarsstyrke

ANGREP FORSVAR POSSESJON DISIPLIN
Poland Turkey

Modell-Prognose

Resultatfrekvenser og hovedmarkeder

Hovedtips Double Chance: Turkey or Draw (X2)
Sekundærtips Under 3.5 Goals
Halvtidstips Draw (HT)
BTTS Prognose Yes (GG)
Over/Under Tips Over 2.5

Value Bet Finder (+EV)

Spill med statistisk verdi mot bookmakerne

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +23.5%
2.94
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11.5%
1.89
*EV represents Erventet verdi. Positiv edge betyr at bookmakerne priser spillet for lavt.

Erventet Kampforløp

Dominanskurver i 15-minutters bolker

0' - 15' Dominansindeks

Both sides are expected to start cautiously, looking to control the midfield battle.

Poland 46%
Turkey 34%
15' - 30' Dominansindeks

The game is expected to settle into a tactical block, with both managers looking for space on the flanks.

Poland 40%
Turkey 45%
30' - 45' Dominansindeks

The tempo could accelerate as both teams push for an opening goal before half-time.

Poland 42%
Turkey 43%
45' - 60' Dominansindeks

Expect tactical adjustments from both sides, possibly shifting to a wider play style.

Poland 44%
Turkey 41%
60' - 75' Dominansindeks

As players tire, spaces will open up, leading to transitional counter-attacks for both teams.

Poland 38%
Turkey 47%
75' - 90' Dominansindeks

A high-risk final phase where any defensive lapse could lead to late drama and decide the match.

Poland 48%
Turkey 49%

Angreps-Heatmaps & Skudd

Varmekart generert fra sone-statistikk

Poland angriper → ← angriper Turkey

Smart Innsikt

Mønstre oppdaget automatisk av systemet

Poland have found the net in 93% of their last 30 matches.

Turkey have conceded at least one goal in 71% of their last 31 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 2.20 goals per match.

Poland remained undefeated in 3 of their last 5 overall matchups.

Turkey suffered defeat in 2 of their last 5 overall games.

Risikoanalyse

Analyse av mulige forstyrrelser og ytre omstendigheter

Risikonivå: Moderat
Risikofaktor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risikofaktor

Friendly match context where both Poland and Turkey will focus on tactical prep rather than league table pressure.

Risikofaktor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Teamvergleich

Statistikk-sammenligning

49 Poeng siste 5 59
1.63 Forventede mål (xG) 2.50
1.38 Forventede mål sluppet inn (xGA) 1.25