Pronostics Sportifs
Alianza vs Once Caldas
Colombia
Primera A Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau 
Résumé du Match
This Primera A encounter between Alianza and Once Caldas promises to be a closely contested affair, with win probabilities pointing to an even matchup. Alianza averages 0.8 goals scored and 1.1 conceded in recent matches. Once Caldas shows a form average of 1.3 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 2 wins for Alianza, 1 wins for Once Caldas, and 2 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 08.02.26 ended in a 1:1 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 0.94 for Alianza and 1.06 for Once Caldas, suggesting the primary value lies in the Once Caldas double chance or over markets.
Probabilité de Victoire
Généré à partir de 10 000 simulations selon l'avantage à domicile et la forme
Confiance du Modèle
Indicateur de score agrégé
- Alianza a pris plus de points récemment que Once Caldas.
- Le modèle prévoit une menace offensive supérieure pour les hôtes (0.94 vs 1.06 xG).
- L'historique des confrontations montre un avantage clair pour les visiteurs.
- Des défenses solides favorisent une rencontre fermée avec peu de buts.
Calculateur de Buts
Les estimations de buts basées sur l'historique xG
Analyse de la Forme Récente
Moyennes par match
| Métrique | Alianza | Once Caldas |
|---|---|---|
| Matchs Joués | 30 | 30 |
| Victoires | 8 | 10 |
| Nuls | 10 | 14 |
| Défaites | 12 | 6 |
| Buts Marqués | 0.83 | 1.27 |
| Buts Encaissés | 1.13 | 1.2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.88 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals Encaissés (xGA) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
H2H
Taux de réussite historiques dans les principaux marchés
Profil Tactique
Positionnement & Styles de Contrôle
Alianza
Once Caldas
Analyse d'Impact des Joueurs Clés
Joueurs majeurs et implication sur les buts attendus
Alianza Comparer
Once Caldas Comparer
Alertes Disponibilité
Indice de Momentum Sokapicks
Indice actuel de performance intégrant la fatigue et l'adversaire (0-100)
Indice de Capacité Offensive & Défensive
Pronostics de l'Algorithme
Probabilités de scores et marchés principaux
Détecteur de Value Bet (+EV)
Matchs où les cotes offertes sous-évaluent notre probabilité
Déroulement Attendu
Projections de domination par quarts d'heure
Both sides are expected to start cautiously, looking to control the midfield battle.
The game is expected to settle into a tactical block, with both managers looking for space on the flanks.
The tempo could accelerate as both teams push for an opening goal before half-time.
Expect tactical adjustments from both sides, possibly shifting to a wider play style.
As players tire, spaces will open up, leading to transitional counter-attacks for both teams.
A high-risk final phase where any defensive lapse could lead to late drama and decide the match.
Heatmaps & Tirs
Superpositions thermiques calculées sur les entrées de zone
Insights Logiques
Tendances détectées automatiquement
Alianza have found the net in 57% of their last 30 matches.
Once Caldas have conceded at least one goal in 73% of their last 30 fixtures.
Historical meetings between these sides average 1.40 goals per match.
Alianza remained undefeated in 4 of their last 5 overall matchups.
Once Caldas suffered defeat in 1 of their last 5 overall games.
Analyse de Risque
Analyse des facteurs perturbateurs et variables externes
Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.
Standard league campaign fixture. Both teams have strong incentives to secure maximum points for table positioning.
Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.
Comparateur d'Équipes
Comparaison des données d'équipes
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atl. Nacional | 19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 35:15 | 40 |
| 2 | Junior | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 31:24 | 35 |
| 3 | Dep. Pasto | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 29:25 | 34 |
| 4 | America De Cali | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 25:15 | 33 |
| 5 | Once Caldas | 19 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 31:22 | 33 |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 27:17 | 31 |
| 7 | Santa Fe | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 29:22 | 29 |
| 8 | Inter Bogotá | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 26:26 | 28 |
| 9 | Dep. Cali | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 20:16 | 27 |
| 10 | Millonarios | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 31:23 | 26 |
| 11 | Ind. Medellin | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26:24 | 26 |
| 12 | Aguilas Doradas | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 20:25 | 26 |
| 13 | Bucaramanga | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 26:20 | 23 |
| 14 | Llaneros | 19 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 17:20 | 22 |
| 15 | Fortaleza C.E.I.F. | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 22:27 | 22 |
| 16 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 20:33 | 18 |
| 17 | Alianza | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 13:27 | 17 |
| 18 | Chico | 19 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 15:32 | 17 |
| 19 | Cucuta | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 22:35 | 16 |
| 20 | Dep. Pereira | 19 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 15:32 | 10 |