Pronostics Sportifs
Cerezo Osaka vs Shimizu S-Pulse
Japan
J1 League 2026 Yodoko Sakura Stadium 
Résumé du Match
Cerezo Osaka enters this J1 League 2026 fixture as the clear favorite, carrying a strong win probability of 60%. Cerezo Osaka averages 1.7 goals scored and 1.4 conceded in recent matches. Shimizu S-Pulse shows a form average of 1.2 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 3 wins for Cerezo Osaka, 1 wins for Shimizu S-Pulse, and 1 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 06.05.26 ended in a 2:1 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 1.20 for Cerezo Osaka and 1.00 for Shimizu S-Pulse, suggesting the primary value lies in the Cerezo Osaka double chance or over markets.
Probabilité de Victoire
Généré à partir de 10 000 simulations selon l'avantage à domicile et la forme
Confiance du Modèle
Indicateur de score agrégé
- Cerezo Osaka a pris plus de points récemment que Shimizu S-Pulse.
- Le modèle prévoit une menace offensive supérieure pour les hôtes (1.20 vs 1.00 xG).
- L'historique des confrontations montre un avantage clair pour les locaux.
- Des taux de conversion élevés laissent présager un match prolifique (Probabilité d'Over 2.5: 66%).
Calculateur de Buts
Les estimations de buts basées sur l'historique xG
Analyse de la Forme Récente
Moyennes par match
| Métrique | Cerezo Osaka | Shimizu S-Pulse |
|---|---|---|
| Matchs Joués | 30 | 30 |
| Victoires | 15 | 11 |
| Nuls | 2 | 3 |
| Défaites | 13 | 16 |
| Buts Marqués | 1.67 | 1.2 |
| Buts Encaissés | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.25 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals Encaissés (xGA) | 1.00 | 1.63 |
H2H
Taux de réussite historiques dans les principaux marchés
Profil Tactique
Positionnement & Styles de Contrôle
Cerezo Osaka
Shimizu S-Pulse
Indice de Momentum Sokapicks
Indice actuel de performance intégrant la fatigue et l'adversaire (0-100)
Indice de Capacité Offensive & Défensive
Pronostics de l'Algorithme
Probabilités de scores et marchés principaux
Détecteur de Value Bet (+EV)
Matchs où les cotes offertes sous-évaluent notre probabilité
Déroulement Attendu
Projections de domination par quarts d'heure
Cerezo Osaka is expected to start with high intensity, putting pressure on the visitors early.
Shimizu S-Pulse will try to absorb the pressure and slow down the tempo of Cerezo Osaka's attacks.
Expect Cerezo Osaka to create chances through sustained possession before the break.
Tactical adjustments at half-time will see Cerezo Osaka vary their attacking width.
Fatigue may set in for Shimizu S-Pulse, allowing Cerezo Osaka's midfield to exploit vertical gaps.
Expect a final offensive push from Cerezo Osaka, while Shimizu S-Pulse takes risks to salvage a result.
Heatmaps & Tirs
Superpositions thermiques calculées sur les entrées de zone
Insights Logiques
Tendances détectées automatiquement
Cerezo Osaka have found the net in 90% of their last 30 matches.
Shimizu S-Pulse have conceded at least one goal in 87% of their last 30 fixtures.
Historical meetings between these sides average 3.40 goals per match.
Cerezo Osaka remained undefeated in 5 of their last 5 overall matchups.
Shimizu S-Pulse suffered defeat in 3 of their last 5 overall games.
Analyse de Risque
Analyse des facteurs perturbateurs et variables externes
Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.
Standard league campaign fixture. Both teams have strong incentives to secure maximum points for table positioning.
Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.
Comparateur d'Équipes
Comparaison des données d'équipes
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kashima Antlers | 18 | 15 | 0 | 3 | 31:11 | 45 |
| 2 | FC Tokyo | 18 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 32:18 | 37 |
| 3 | Machida Zelvia | 18 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 28:22 | 37 |
| 4 | Kawasaki Frontale | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 26:28 | 28 |
| 5 | Verdy | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 22:26 | 28 |
| 6 | Urawa Reds | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | 25:22 | 25 |
| 7 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 18 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 28:31 | 20 |
| 8 | Kashiwa Reysol | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | 22:24 | 20 |
| 9 | Mito | 18 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 23:39 | 18 |
| 10 | Chiba | 18 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 18:34 | 12 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vissel Kobe | 18 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 29:25 | 35 |
| 2 | Cerezo Osaka | 18 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 30:21 | 31 |
| 3 | Nagoya Grampus | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 33:31 | 31 |
| 4 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 31:23 | 30 |
| 5 | Gamba Osaka | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 31:25 | 28 |
| 6 | Okayama | 18 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 26:29 | 26 |
| 7 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 18 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 23:25 | 24 |
| 8 | Kyoto | 18 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 22:28 | 23 |
| 9 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | 21:29 | 21 |
| 10 | Avispa Fukuoka | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | 21:31 | 21 |