Pronostics Sportifs
Sumsel United vs Sriwijaya
Indonesia
Championship Gelora Sriwijaya Jakabaring 
Résumé du Match
Sumsel United enters this Championship fixture as the clear favorite, carrying a strong win probability of 68%. Sumsel United averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.2 conceded in recent matches. Sriwijaya shows a form average of 0.6 goals scored and 3.2 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 2 wins for Sumsel United, 0 wins for Sriwijaya, and 1 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 28.02.26 ended in a 3:0 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 3.06 for Sumsel United and 0.69 for Sriwijaya, suggesting the primary value lies in the Sumsel United double chance or over markets.
Probabilité de Victoire
Généré à partir de 10 000 simulations selon l'avantage à domicile et la forme
Confiance du Modèle
Indicateur de score agrégé
- Sumsel United a pris plus de points récemment que Sriwijaya.
- Le modèle prévoit une menace offensive supérieure pour les hôtes (3.06 vs 0.69 xG).
- L'historique des confrontations montre un avantage clair pour les locaux.
- Des taux de conversion élevés laissent présager un match prolifique (Probabilité d'Over 2.5: 57%).
Calculateur de Buts
Les estimations de buts basées sur l'historique xG
Analyse de la Forme Récente
Moyennes par match
| Métrique | Sumsel United | Sriwijaya |
|---|---|---|
| Matchs Joués | 27 | 30 |
| Victoires | 12 | 2 |
| Nuls | 6 | 2 |
| Défaites | 9 | 26 |
| Buts Marqués | 1.48 | 0.6 |
| Buts Encaissés | 1.22 | 3.17 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.63 | 0.25 |
| Expected Goals Encaissés (xGA) | 1.13 | 4.50 |
H2H
Taux de réussite historiques dans les principaux marchés
Profil Tactique
Positionnement & Styles de Contrôle
Sumsel United
Sriwijaya
Analyse d'Impact des Joueurs Clés
Joueurs majeurs et implication sur les buts attendus
Sumsel United Comparer
Sriwijaya Comparer
Alertes Disponibilité
Indice de Momentum Sokapicks
Indice actuel de performance intégrant la fatigue et l'adversaire (0-100)
Indice de Capacité Offensive & Défensive
Pronostics de l'Algorithme
Probabilités de scores et marchés principaux
Détecteur de Value Bet (+EV)
Matchs où les cotes offertes sous-évaluent notre probabilité
Déroulement Attendu
Projections de domination par quarts d'heure
Sumsel United is expected to start with high intensity, putting pressure on the visitors early.
Sriwijaya will try to absorb the pressure and slow down the tempo of Sumsel United's attacks.
Expect Sumsel United to create chances through sustained possession before the break.
Tactical adjustments at half-time will see Sumsel United vary their attacking width.
Fatigue may set in for Sriwijaya, allowing Sumsel United's midfield to exploit vertical gaps.
Expect a final offensive push from Sumsel United, while Sriwijaya takes risks to salvage a result.
Heatmaps & Tirs
Superpositions thermiques calculées sur les entrées de zone
Insights Logiques
Tendances détectées automatiquement
Sumsel United have found the net in 81% of their last 27 matches.
Sriwijaya have conceded at least one goal in 93% of their last 30 fixtures.
Historical meetings between these sides average 3.33 goals per match.
Sumsel United remained undefeated in 3 of their last 5 overall matchups.
Sriwijaya suffered defeat in 5 of their last 5 overall games.
Analyse de Risque
Analyse des facteurs perturbateurs et variables externes
Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.
Standard league campaign fixture. Both teams have strong incentives to secure maximum points for table positioning.
Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.
Comparateur d'Équipes
Comparaison des données d'équipes
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Garudayaksa | 27 | 14 | 10 | 3 | 49:19 | 52 |
| 2 | Adhyaksa | 27 | 14 | 9 | 4 | 64:34 | 51 |
| 3 | Bekasi City | 27 | 12 | 8 | 7 | 42:27 | 44 |
| 4 | Sumsel United | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 40:33 | 42 |
| 5 | Persiraja Aceh | 27 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 42:32 | 40 |
| 6 | PSPS Riau | 27 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 50:45 | 37 |
| 7 | PSMS Medan | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 33:31 | 36 |
| 8 | Persikad Depok | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 39:45 | 34 |
| 9 | Persekat Tegal | 27 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 23:38 | 27 |
| 10 | Sriwijaya | 27 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 15:93 | 2 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSS Sleman | 27 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 53:19 | 56 |
| 2 | Persipura Jayapura | 27 | 17 | 5 | 5 | 44:17 | 56 |
| 3 | PS Barito Putera | 27 | 15 | 8 | 4 | 41:18 | 53 |
| 4 | Tornado Pekanbaru | 27 | 15 | 5 | 7 | 47:21 | 50 |
| 5 | Deltras Sidoarjo | 27 | 13 | 3 | 11 | 39:33 | 42 |
| 6 | Persela Lamongan | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 34:26 | 41 |
| 7 | Persiku Kudus | 27 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 35:41 | 27 |
| 8 | PSIS Semarang | 27 | 6 | 5 | 16 | 22:50 | 23 |
| 9 | Balikpapan | 27 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 23:42 | 19 |
| 10 | Persipal BU | 27 | 0 | 7 | 20 | 19:90 | 7 |