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Aarau

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

A. Lustenau play Aarau in the Club Friendly. It looks like a close match. Recently, A. Lustenau averaged 1.39 goals scored and 1.07 conceded. Aarau averaged 2.03 goals scored and 1.79 conceded. In past meetings, A. Lustenau won 1, Aarau won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jan 21, 2023 ended 0:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.13 for A. Lustenau and 1.50 for Aarau. This points to a A. Lustenau double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%

A. Lustenau

21%

Draws

35%

Aarau

Draw rate projection: 21% Favored: A. Lustenau

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence

A. Lustenau picked up more points recently compared to Aarau.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.13 vs 1.50 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 68%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 80%

Over 2.5 Goals 68%

Over 3.5 Goals 41%

Over 4.5 Goals 20%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 53%

A. Lustenau Clean Sheet 16%

Aarau Clean Sheet 13%

First Half Goal 72%

Second Half Goal 76%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	A. Lustenau	Aarau
Matches Played	28	29
Wins	15	14
Draws	5	6
Losses	8	9
Goals Scored	1.39	2.03
Goals Conceded	1.07	1.79
Expected Goals (xG)	1.38	2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.88	0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 21, 2023 Club Friendly

A. Lustenau vs Aarau

Possession: 49% - 59% Cards: 2 - 2

0:3

Feb 1, 2012 Club Friendly

Aarau vs A. Lustenau

Possession: 52% - 51% Cards: 2 - 1

0:3

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

A. Lustenau 43 / 100

Aarau 34 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

A. Lustenau Aarau

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: A. Lustenau or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +22.3%

2.78

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +9.5%

1.61

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

A. Lustenau attacking → ← attacking Aarau

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

A. Lustenau scored in 68% of their last 28 games.

Aarau let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

A. Lustenau went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Aarau lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

50 Points in last 5 48

1.38 Goals expected (xG) 2.13

0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.88