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AA Carapebus vs Niteroiense - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Carioca B1
Sat, Oct 10, 2026
VS
09:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

AA Carapebus host Niteroiense in the Carioca B1. This one's hard to separate. AA Carapebus have averaged 1.17 scored and 1.31 conceded recently, against Niteroiense's 1.59 scored and 1.1 conceded. Past meetings favor AA Carapebus slightly — 2-0-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Sep 20, 2025, ending 0:2. Model xG sits at 0.63 vs 1.56, favoring Niteroiense. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

6%
AA Carapebus
20%
Draws
74%
Niteroiense
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Niteroiense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / High Confidence
  • Niteroiense have won more games recently than AA Carapebus.
  • Model gives Niteroiense a 74% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
AA Carapebus Clean Sheet 15%
Niteroiense Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AA Carapebus Niteroiense
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 9 15
Draws 6 8
Losses 14 6
Goals Scored 1.17 1.59
Goals Conceded 1.31 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 20, 2025 Carioca B1
Niteroiense vs AA Carapebus
0:2
Oct 13, 2024 Carioca B2
Niteroiense vs AA Carapebus
0:4

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AA Carapebus 10 / 100
Niteroiense 85 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AA Carapebus Niteroiense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Niteroiense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

AA Carapebus scored in 55% of their last 29 games.

Niteroiense let in goals in 59% of their last 29 matches.

AA Carapebus has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

AA Carapebus VS Niteroiense
0.5 Goals Scored 1.63
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.75
50% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

AA Carapebus

(Home)
03 Oct
Macae
4 : 3
AA Carapebus
25 Sept
AA Carapebus
0 : 1
Sao Cristovao
19 Sept
Artsul
0 : 0
AA Carapebus
11 Sept
AA Carapebus
1 : 4
Duque de Caxias
05 Sept
Campo Grande
1 : 0
AA Carapebus
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Niteroiense

(Away)
03 Oct
Niteroiense
1 : 0
Sao Cristovao
26 Sept
Duque de Caxias
0 : 2
Niteroiense
19 Sept
Niteroiense
1 : 0
Nova Cidade
12 Sept
Goncalense
1 : 1
Niteroiense
05 Sept
Niteroiense
2 : 0
Serrano FC
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Niteroiense 5 4 1 0 7:1 13
2 Goytacaz 5 3 1 1 5:4 10
3 Duque de Caxias 5 3 0 2 9:5 9
4 Goncalense 5 2 3 0 6:3 9
5 Artsul 5 2 2 1 8:6 8
6 Campo Grande 5 2 2 1 6:5 8
7 Serrano FC 5 2 2 1 6:6 8
8 Macae 5 2 1 2 7:6 7
9 Sao Cristovao 5 1 2 2 3:4 5
10 Nova Cidade 5 0 2 3 3:8 2
11 AA Carapebus 5 0 1 4 4:10 1
12 Audax RJ 5 0 1 4 2:8 1
Promotion - Carioca B1 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca B2 2027 (Main)