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Aarau vs Lausanne Ouchy - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Switzerland Switzerland

Challenge League Stadion Brügglifeld, Aarau
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Ndau K.
44'
Muller S.
54' Event
Sartoretti M.
Assist: Sow C.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Challenge League matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
Aarau
30%
Draws
51%
Lausanne Ouchy
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Lausanne Ouchy

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Lausanne Ouchy have won more games recently than Aarau.
  • Model gives Lausanne Ouchy a 51% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Challenge League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Aarau Clean Sheet 10%
Lausanne Ouchy Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aarau Lausanne Ouchy
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 12 14
Draws 8 7
Losses 9 9
Goals Scored 1.76 1.8
Goals Conceded 1.62 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 2.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 1, 2026 Challenge League
Aarau vs Lausanne Ouchy
1:1
Apr 22, 2026 Challenge League
Aarau vs Lausanne Ouchy
3:0
Feb 13, 2026 Challenge League
Lausanne Ouchy vs Aarau
4:2
Oct 17, 2025 Challenge League
Lausanne Ouchy vs Aarau
1:2
Aug 25, 2025 Challenge League
Aarau vs Lausanne Ouchy
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aarau Compare

Top Goalscorer Ndau K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Lausanne Ouchy Compare

Top Goalscorer Sartoretti M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.33
Avg xA / game 1.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aarau 10 / 100
Lausanne Ouchy 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aarau Lausanne Ouchy

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lausanne Ouchy Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 3:5
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aarau found the back of the net in 86% of recent matches (29 games).

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Defensive concern: Lausanne Ouchy conceded in 70% of 30 recent games.

Solid form: Aarau remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Aarau VS Lausanne Ouchy
1.63 Goals Scored 3
2.13 Goals Conceded 0.63
100% Over 1.5 88%
100% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Aarau

(Home)
02 Oct
Aarau
1 : 2
Young Boys
24 Sept
Grasshoppers
4 : 1
Aarau
18 Sept
Winterthur
2 : 1
Aarau
12 Sept
Aarau
2 : 2
Kriens
04 Sept
Aarau
3 : 2
Rapperswil-Jona
Page 1 of 6

Lausanne Ouchy

(Away)
02 Oct
Grenoble
0 : 0
Lausanne Ouchy
24 Sept
Lausanne Ouchy
4 : 2
Sion
20 Sept
Yverdon
0 : 0
Lausanne Ouchy
11 Sept
Lausanne Ouchy
4 : 0
Wil
04 Sept
Kriens
0 : 2
Lausanne Ouchy
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lausanne Ouchy 9 6 3 0 17:3 21
2 Winterthur 9 5 3 1 19:8 18
3 Yverdon 9 4 4 1 14:9 16
4 Kriens 9 4 2 3 16:11 14
5 Aarau 9 3 3 3 14:16 12
6 Xamax 9 4 0 5 12:17 12
7 Rapperswil-Jona 9 3 1 5 15:16 10
8 Etoile-Carouge 9 2 3 4 8:12 9
9 Wil 9 2 3 4 15:21 9
10 Stade Nyonnais 9 0 2 7 6:23 2
Promotion - Super League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Challenge League (Promotion)
Relegation - Promotion League 2027/2028 (Main)