Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Aarau vs Lausanne Ouchy

Switzerland Switzerland

Challenge League 2025/2026 Stadion Brügglifeld, Aarau
Our Tip

Match Events

47' Event
Filet E.
63'
Sub
Mendy F. In: Nomel L.
Out: Mendy F.
63'
Sub
Lukembila H. In: Kaloga I.
Out: Lukembila H.

AI Match Summary

The Challenge League 2025/2026 game between Aarau and Lausanne Ouchy finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Aarau.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Aarau
20%
Draws
38%
Lausanne Ouchy
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Aarau

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Aarau come out ahead of Lausanne Ouchy on wins alone.
  • Aarau are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • Regular Challenge League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Aarau Clean Sheet 14%
Lausanne Ouchy Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aarau Lausanne Ouchy
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 15 14
Draws 6 5
Losses 9 13
Goals Scored 1.38 2
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 22, 2026 Challenge League
Aarau vs Lausanne Ouchy
3:0
Feb 13, 2026 Challenge League
Lausanne Ouchy vs Aarau
4:2
Oct 17, 2025 Challenge League
Lausanne Ouchy vs Aarau
1:2
Aug 25, 2025 Challenge League
Aarau vs Lausanne Ouchy
3:0
Apr 4, 2025 Challenge League
Aarau vs Lausanne Ouchy
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aarau Compare

Top Goalscorer Filet E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Vladi S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Lausanne Ouchy Compare

Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aarau 41 / 100
Lausanne Ouchy 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aarau Lausanne Ouchy

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aarau's goal record stands at 87% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Defensive concern: Lausanne Ouchy conceded in 81% of 32 recent games.

Games between these two average 3.80 goals.

Lausanne Ouchy's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Aarau VS Lausanne Ouchy
1.38 Goals Scored 2
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Aarau

(Home)
18 Jul
Aarau
2 : 1
Union Berlin
10 Jul
A. Lustenau
1 : 0
Aarau
30 Jun
Aarau
1 : 3
St. Gallen II
21 May
Grasshoppers
2 : 1
Aarau
18 May
Aarau
0 : 0
Grasshoppers
Page 1 of 6

Lausanne Ouchy

(Away)
17 Jul
Lausanne Ouchy
3 : 1
Servette U21
11 Jul
Zurich
1 : 2
Lausanne Ouchy
08 Jul
Servette
2 : 0
Lausanne Ouchy
27 Jun
Luzern
3 : 2
Lausanne Ouchy
24 May
Lausanne Ouchy
0 : 3
St. Gallen
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Vaduz36256575:4181
2Aarau36255677:4780
3Yverdon36207975:4867
4Lausanne Ouchy361481459:5150
5Xamax361471555:5649
6Rapperswil-Jona361422052:6244
7Etoile-Carouge3610101646:5440
8Wil3610101639:5540
9Stade Nyonnais365131833:6028
10Bellinzona36582340:7723
Promotion - Super League (Main)
Promotion - Super League 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Promotion League (Main)