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Stadium Background

Aarhus vs KF Egnatia - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Europe Europe

Conference League Cepheus Park, Randers
Thu, Oct 22, 2026
VS
07:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Aarhus host KF Egnatia in the Conference League. Little to choose between these two on current form. Aarhus have averaged 1.89 scored and 1.56 conceded recently, against KF Egnatia's 1.96 scored and 1.41 conceded. No recent head-to-head history to lean on here — form is the better guide. xG projections (1.31 - 1.63) back KF Egnatia to edge this. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Aarhus
15%
Draws
46%
KF Egnatia
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: KF Egnatia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and KF Egnatia come out ahead of Aarhus on wins alone.
  • Model gives Aarhus a 39% chance of winning this.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.6%
Aarhus Clean Sheet 14%
KF Egnatia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aarhus KF Egnatia
Matches Played 27 27
Wins 10 13
Draws 8 4
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 1.89 1.96
Goals Conceded 1.56 1.41
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aarhus 39 / 100
KF Egnatia 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aarhus KF Egnatia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aarhus Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aarhus found the back of the net in 85% of recent matches (27 games).

KF Egnatia's defensive record shows goals conceded in 78% of 27 matches.

Recent resilience: Aarhus stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Difficult form: KF Egnatia registered 1 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Aarhus VS KF Egnatia
1.75 Goals Scored 1.38
1.88 Goals Conceded 0.88
100% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Aarhus

(Home)
12 Oct
Aarhus
3 : 0
Sonderjyske
02 Oct
Aarhus
2 : 1
Vendsyssel FF
20 Sept
Horsens
2 : 2
Aarhus
16 Sept
Skjold
1 : 6
Aarhus
13 Sept
Nordsjaelland
2 : 0
Aarhus
Page 1 of 6

KF Egnatia

(Away)
11 Oct
Laci
0 : 2
KF Egnatia
20 Sept
KF Egnatia
2 : 1
Partizani
13 Sept
AF Elbasani
2 : 1
KF Egnatia
04 Sept
KF Egnatia
2 : 1
Skenderbeu Korca
31 Aug
Vora
1 : 3
KF Egnatia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mjallby 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Brighton 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Monaco 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Jablonec 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
5 Gent 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
6 St. Truiden 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
7 Freiburg 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
8 Atalanta 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
9 Ajax 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
10 Twente 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
11 Getafe 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
12 KuPS 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
13 CSKA Sofia 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
14 Hajduk Split 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
15 Pafos 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
16 Aarhus 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
17 FC Copenhagen 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
18 Midtjylland 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
19 Nordsjaelland 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
20 Panathinaikos 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
21 Brann 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
22 Braga 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
23 Hearts 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
24 Lugano 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
25 Crvena zvezda 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
26 Thun 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
27 Trabzonspor 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
28 Borac Banja Luka 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
29 Kairat Almaty 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
30 KF Egnatia 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
31 Inter Escaldes 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
32 FK Kauno Zalgiris 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
33 Univ. Craiova 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
34 Iberia 1999 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
35 Lincoln Red Imps 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
36 Riga FC 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Conference League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - Conference League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)