Sport Picks

Wales

Division 1

Ton Pentre

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Abergavenny Town play Ton Pentre in the Division 1. Ton Pentre are favorites here. Recently, Abergavenny Town averaged 0.9 goals scored and 2.65 conceded. Ton Pentre averaged 1.63 goals scored and 2.42 conceded. In past meetings, Abergavenny Town won 0, Ton Pentre won 3, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jan 4, 2020 ended 0:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.44 for Abergavenny Town and 1.31 for Ton Pentre. This points to a Ton Pentre double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%

Abergavenny Town

15%

Draws

69%

Ton Pentre

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ton Pentre

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence

Abergavenny Town picked up more points recently compared to Ton Pentre.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.44 vs 1.31 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 79%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 94%

Over 2.5 Goals 79%

Over 3.5 Goals 47%

Over 4.5 Goals 24%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 58%

Abergavenny Town Clean Sheet 18%

Ton Pentre Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 85%

Second Half Goal 89%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Abergavenny Town	Ton Pentre
Matches Played	40	19
Wins	5	7
Draws	3	2
Losses	32	10
Goals Scored	0.9	1.63
Goals Conceded	2.65	2.42
Expected Goals (xG)	0.88	1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.63	2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 4, 2020 Division 1

Abergavenny Town vs Ton Pentre

Possession: 56% - 41% Cards: 3 - 1

0:3

Sep 14, 2019 Division 1

Ton Pentre vs Abergavenny Town

Possession: 53% - 47% Cards: 0 - 1

2:1

Oct 1, 2016 FA Cup

Ton Pentre vs Abergavenny Town

Possession: 57% - 41% Cards: 1 - 3

4:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Abergavenny Town Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.44

Ton Pentre Compare

Top Goalscorer Thomas L.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.91

Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Abergavenny Town 18 / 100

Ton Pentre 64 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Abergavenny Town Ton Pentre

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ton Pentre Win (2)

Secondary Pick Ton Pentre & Over 2.5

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +100%

12.50

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +8.2%

1.37

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Abergavenny Town attacking → ← attacking Ton Pentre

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Abergavenny Town scored in 57% of their last 40 games.

Ton Pentre let in goals in 84% of their last 19 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Abergavenny Town went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

Ton Pentre lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

18 Points in last 5 23

0.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.00

1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.00