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Abergavenny Town W vs Caernarfon Town W

Wales Wales

Premier Women 2017/2018
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Abergavenny Town W play Caernarfon Town W in the Premier Women 2017/2018. Abergavenny Town W are favorites here. Recently, Abergavenny Town W averaged 1.22 goals scored and 2.47 conceded. Caernarfon Town W averaged 0.5 goals scored and 5.11 conceded. In past meetings, Abergavenny Town W won 2, Caernarfon Town W won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Apr 29, 2018 ended 0:7. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.10 for Abergavenny Town W and 2.19 for Caernarfon Town W. This points to a Abergavenny Town W double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

65%
Abergavenny Town W
15%
Draws
20%
Caernarfon Town W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Abergavenny Town W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

91% / Very High Confidence
  • Abergavenny Town W picked up more points recently compared to Caernarfon Town W.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.10 vs 2.19 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 77%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 77%
Over 3.5 Goals 46%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33%
Abergavenny Town W Clean Sheet 10%
Caernarfon Town W Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 79%
Second Half Goal 84%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Abergavenny Town W Caernarfon Town W
Matches Played 32 18
Wins 7 1
Draws 5 0
Losses 20 17
Goals Scored 1.22 0.5
Goals Conceded 2.47 5.11

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 29, 2018 Premier Women
Caernarfon Town W vs Abergavenny Town W
0:7
Jan 14, 2018 Premier Women
Abergavenny Town W vs Caernarfon Town W
5:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Abergavenny Town W 61 / 100
Caernarfon Town W 21 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Abergavenny Town W Caernarfon Town W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Abergavenny Town W Win (1)
Secondary Pick Abergavenny Town W & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +13.7%
1.75
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +8.6%
1.41
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Abergavenny Town W attacking → ← attacking Caernarfon Town W

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Abergavenny Town W scored in 56% of their last 32 games.

Caernarfon Town W let in goals in 94% of their last 18 matches.

Games between these two average 6.00 goals.

Abergavenny Town W went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

Caernarfon Town W lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

26 Points in last 5 3
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
3.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Cardiff Met. Ladies W18152162:1247
2Swansea W18133264:1242
3Abergavenny Town W18122461:2538
4Cyncoed W18121542:2037
5Cardiff City W1883747:3227
6Port Talbot W1881939:4025
7Llandudno FC W18611129:4319
8Rhyl W18421226:6214
9Caernarfon Town W1810179:923
10Caldicot W18311423:641