Sport Picks

Wales

Cymru South 2023/2024

Afan Lido

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Abertillery Bluebirds play Afan Lido in the Cymru South 2023/2024. Afan Lido are favorites here. Recently, Abertillery Bluebirds averaged 1.21 goals scored and 2.97 conceded. Afan Lido averaged 1.47 goals scored and 1.86 conceded. In past meetings, Abertillery Bluebirds won 0, Afan Lido won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Apr 20, 2024 ended 2:5. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.79 for Abertillery Bluebirds and 0.93 for Afan Lido. This points to a Afan Lido double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%

Abertillery Bluebirds

15%

Draws

62%

Afan Lido

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Afan Lido

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence

Abertillery Bluebirds picked up more points recently compared to Afan Lido.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.79 vs 0.93 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 70%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%

Over 1.5 Goals 83%

Over 2.5 Goals 70%

Over 3.5 Goals 42%

Over 4.5 Goals 21%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64%

Abertillery Bluebirds Clean Sheet 24%

Afan Lido Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 75%

Second Half Goal 79%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Abertillery Bluebirds	Afan Lido
Matches Played	29	36
Wins	5	14
Draws	6	3
Losses	18	19
Goals Scored	1.21	1.47
Goals Conceded	2.97	1.86

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 20, 2024 Cymru South

Abertillery Bluebirds vs Afan Lido

Possession: 60% - 57% Cards: 0 - 4

2:5

Jul 28, 2023 Cymru South

Afan Lido vs Abertillery Bluebirds

Possession: 44% - 52% Cards: 1 - 3

3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Abertillery Bluebirds Compare

Top Goalscorer Meredith R.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Methven C.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0

Avg xA / game 0

Afan Lido Compare

Top Goalscorer Griffiths L.

3 Goals

Assists Leader Owen I.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Abertillery Bluebirds 26 / 100

Afan Lido 58 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Abertillery Bluebirds Afan Lido

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Afan Lido Win (2)

Secondary Pick Afan Lido & Over 2.5

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +53.4%

6.67

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +9.2%

1.56

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Abertillery Bluebirds attacking → ← attacking Afan Lido

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Abertillery Bluebirds scored in 82% of their last 28 games.

Afan Lido let in goals in 86% of their last 36 matches.

Games between these two average 5.00 goals.

Abertillery Bluebirds went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

Afan Lido lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

21 Points in last 5 45

0.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.75

0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.38

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Briton Ferry	30	23	2	5	87:39	71
2	Llanelli	30	20	4	6	80:40	64
3	Ammanford Town	30	17	6	7	60:42	57
4	Cambrian United	30	14	8	8	60:37	50
5	Caerau Ely	30	15	4	11	72:60	49
6	Carmarthen Town	30	12	11	7	50:39	47
7	Afan Lido	30	14	4	12	68:56	46
8	Goytre Utd	30	12	7	11	58:59	43
9	Cwmbran Celtic	30	12	6	12	69:64	42
10	Baglan Dragons	30	11	8	11	46:41	41
11	Trefelin	30	10	8	12	47:63	38
12	Llantwit Major	30	9	8	13	44:54	35
13	Taffs Well	30	8	8	14	44:49	32
14	Pontardawe	30	8	8	14	52:70	32
15	Abertillery Bluebirds	30	3	6	21	34:94	15
16	Abergavenny Town	30	2	2	26	20:84	8