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Abertillery Bluebirds vs Taffs Well

Wales Wales

Cymru South 2023/2024
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Abertillery Bluebirds play Taffs Well in the Cymru South 2023/2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, Abertillery Bluebirds averaged 1.21 goals scored and 2.97 conceded. Taffs Well averaged 1.29 goals scored and 2.5 conceded. In past meetings, Abertillery Bluebirds won 0, Taffs Well won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jan 6, 2024 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.79 for Abertillery Bluebirds and 0.93 for Taffs Well. This points to a Taffs Well double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Abertillery Bluebirds
19%
Draws
46%
Taffs Well
Draw rate projection: 19% Favored: Taffs Well

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence
  • Abertillery Bluebirds picked up more points recently compared to Taffs Well.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.79 vs 0.93 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 73%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 92%
Over 2.5 Goals 73%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 22%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Abertillery Bluebirds Clean Sheet 24%
Taffs Well Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 83%
Second Half Goal 87%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Abertillery Bluebirds Taffs Well
Matches Played 29 34
Wins 5 6
Draws 6 6
Losses 18 22
Goals Scored 1.21 1.29
Goals Conceded 2.97 2.5

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 6, 2024 Cymru South
Abertillery Bluebirds vs Taffs Well
1:1
Nov 17, 2023 Cymru South
Taffs Well vs Abertillery Bluebirds
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Abertillery Bluebirds Compare

Top Goalscorer Vagg M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Taffs Well Compare

Top Goalscorer Lewis C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Abertillery Bluebirds 36 / 100
Taffs Well 43 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Abertillery Bluebirds Taffs Well

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Taffs Well or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +29.5%
3.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +8.8%
1.49
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Abertillery Bluebirds attacking → ← attacking Taffs Well

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Abertillery Bluebirds scored in 82% of their last 28 games.

Taffs Well let in goals in 97% of their last 34 matches.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Abertillery Bluebirds went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

Taffs Well lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

21 Points in last 5 24
0.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.75
0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.38

League Standings

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10Baglan Dragons301181146:4141
11Trefelin301081247:6338
12Llantwit Major30981344:5435
13Taffs Well30881444:4932
14Pontardawe30881452:7032
15Abertillery Bluebirds30362134:9415
16Abergavenny Town30222620:848