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Aberystwyth vs Llantwit Major - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Wales Wales

Cymru South
Our Tip

Match Events

23' Event
Williams A.
32' Event
Evans T.
49' Event
Hughes R.

AI Match Summary

The Cymru South game between Aberystwyth and Llantwit Major finished 5-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Aberystwyth.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Aberystwyth
20%
Draws
28%
Llantwit Major
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Aberystwyth

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Aberystwyth carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Aberystwyth are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Cymru South form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Aberystwyth here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Aberystwyth Clean Sheet 20%
Llantwit Major Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aberystwyth Llantwit Major
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 14 9
Draws 4 7
Losses 11 13
Goals Scored 1.59 1.41
Goals Conceded 1.31 1.93
Expected Goals (xG) 2.44 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 22, 2026 Cymru South
Aberystwyth vs Llantwit Major
5:1
Apr 4, 2026 Cymru South
Aberystwyth vs Llantwit Major
2:2
Jul 26, 2025 Cymru South
Llantwit Major vs Aberystwyth
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aberystwyth Compare

Top Goalscorer Williams A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Evans T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.88
Avg xA / game 1.22

Llantwit Major Compare

Top Goalscorer Goldsworthy C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aberystwyth 85 / 100
Llantwit Major 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aberystwyth Llantwit Major

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aberystwyth Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Llantwit Major has conceded goals in 86% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 4.33 goals as a typical output.

Aberystwyth has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Aberystwyth's goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Aberystwyth VS Llantwit Major
2.5 Goals Scored 0.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 2.38
75% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Aberystwyth

(Home)
03 Oct
Pontypridd United
1 : 3
Aberystwyth
25 Sept
Aberystwyth
0 : 0
Pure Swansea
12 Sept
Caerphilly
2 : 3
Aberystwyth
31 Aug
Aberystwyth
4 : 0
Llanelli
28 Aug
Aberystwyth
1 : 0
Pontardawe
Page 1 of 6

Llantwit Major

(Away)
06 Oct
Pontypridd United
4 : 1
Llantwit Major
02 Oct
Carmarthen Town
1 : 2
Llantwit Major
26 Sept
Llantwit Major
2 : 0
Llanelli
12 Sept
Treowen
1 : 1
Llantwit Major
22 Aug
Aberystwyth
5 : 1
Llantwit Major
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pure Swansea 8 6 2 0 25:6 20
2 Aberystwyth 8 6 1 1 22:8 19
3 Pontypridd United 9 6 1 2 23:16 19
4 Caerau Ely 9 5 1 3 21:18 16
5 Baglan Dragons 10 5 1 4 11:11 16
6 Carmarthen Town 9 4 2 3 20:19 14
7 Ynyshir Albions 8 3 4 1 9:7 13
8 Treowen 9 4 1 4 18:18 13
9 Afan Lido 10 3 2 5 13:17 11
10 Trethomas Bluebirds 9 2 4 3 17:17 10
11 Pontardawe 8 3 0 5 14:16 9
12 Newport City 7 2 2 3 10:6 8
13 Cardiff Draconians 7 2 2 3 9:12 8
14 Caerphilly 9 2 2 5 9:17 8
15 Llantwit Major 8 2 1 5 7:20 7
16 Llanelli 10 0 2 8 7:27 2
Promotion - Cymru Premier 2027/2028 (Main)