Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Aberystwyth vs Treowen

Wales Wales

Cymru South
Our Tip

Match Events

64' Event
Davies C.
(Penalty)
88' Event
Hillman T.
90' Event
Hughes R.

AI Match Summary

Treowen in this Cymru South matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Treowen.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Aberystwyth
20%
Draws
28%
Treowen
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Aberystwyth

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Aberystwyth haven't matched Treowen's recent run of results.
  • 52% — that's where the model lands on Aberystwyth taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Aberystwyth here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Aberystwyth Clean Sheet 10%
Treowen Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aberystwyth Treowen
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 13 15
Draws 4 5
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 1.48 1.97
Goals Conceded 1.45 1.87
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 8, 2026 Cymru South
Aberystwyth vs Treowen
1:2
Feb 14, 2026 Cymru South
Aberystwyth vs Treowen
2:1
Oct 11, 2025 Cymru South
Treowen vs Aberystwyth
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aberystwyth Compare

Top Goalscorer Hughes R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Treowen Compare

Top Goalscorer Hillman T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aberystwyth 83 / 100
Treowen 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aberystwyth Treowen

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aberystwyth Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Treowen conceded in 80% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.67 goals as a typical output.

Aberystwyth went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Aberystwyth found the back of the net in 66% of recent matches (29 games).

Scoring Trends

Aberystwyth VS Treowen
2.38 Goals Scored 2.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Aberystwyth

(Home)
25 Sept
Aberystwyth
0 : 0
Pure Swansea
12 Sept
Caerphilly
2 : 3
Aberystwyth
31 Aug
Aberystwyth
4 : 0
Llanelli
28 Aug
Aberystwyth
1 : 0
Pontardawe
22 Aug
Aberystwyth
5 : 1
Llantwit Major
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Treowen

(Away)
26 Sept
Pontardawe
6 : 1
Treowen
12 Sept
Treowen
1 : 1
Llantwit Major
04 Sept
Llanelli
0 : 2
Treowen
31 Aug
Caerau Ely
3 : 2
Treowen
22 Aug
Carmarthen Town
2 : 4
Treowen
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pure Swansea 7 5 2 0 22:5 17
2 Aberystwyth 7 5 1 1 19:7 16
3 Pontypridd United 7 5 1 1 18:12 16
4 Carmarthen Town 8 4 2 2 19:17 14
5 Caerau Ely 8 4 1 3 19:18 13
6 Treowen 8 4 1 3 17:16 13
7 Baglan Dragons 9 4 1 4 9:10 13
8 Afan Lido 9 3 2 4 13:15 11
9 Trethomas Bluebirds 8 2 4 2 15:14 10
10 Ynyshir Albions 7 2 4 1 7:6 10
11 Caerphilly 8 2 2 4 8:14 8
12 Newport City 6 2 1 3 9:5 7
13 Cardiff Draconians 6 2 1 3 8:11 7
14 Pontardawe 7 2 0 5 11:14 6
15 Llantwit Major 6 1 1 4 4:15 4
16 Llanelli 9 0 2 7 6:25 2
Promotion - Cymru Premier 2027/2028 (Main)