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Stadium Background

AC Libertas vs SP Cosmos

San Marino San Marino

Campionato Sammarinese 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

37' Event
Guidotti R.
Assist: Tomassini F. R.

AI Match Summary

The Campionato Sammarinese 2025/2026 game between AC Libertas and SP Cosmos finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward AC Libertas.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
AC Libertas
30%
Draws
47%
SP Cosmos
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: SP Cosmos

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • AC Libertas haven't matched SP Cosmos's recent run of results.
  • 47% — that's where the model lands on SP Cosmos taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
AC Libertas Clean Sheet 11%
SP Cosmos Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AC Libertas SP Cosmos
Matches Played 30 34
Wins 9 12
Draws 8 11
Losses 13 11
Goals Scored 1 1.09
Goals Conceded 1.97 0.94
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 29, 2026 Campionato Sammarinese
SP Cosmos vs AC Libertas
1:1
Mar 15, 2026 Campionato Sammarinese
AC Libertas vs SP Cosmos
1:0
Nov 23, 2025 Campionato Sammarinese
SP Cosmos vs AC Libertas
1:1
Jan 18, 2025 Campionato Sammarinese
SP Cosmos vs AC Libertas
2:2
Aug 30, 2024 Campionato Sammarinese
AC Libertas vs SP Cosmos
0:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AC Libertas Compare

Top Goalscorer Guidotti R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

SP Cosmos Compare

Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AC Libertas 10 / 100
SP Cosmos 76 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AC Libertas SP Cosmos

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SP Cosmos Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AC Libertas scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Recent resilience: AC Libertas stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

SP Cosmos's defensive record shows goals conceded in 56% of 34 matches.

Scoring Trends

AC Libertas VS SP Cosmos
0.63 Goals Scored 0.88
2.75 Goals Conceded 0.63
100% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

AC Libertas

(Home)
18 Sept
AC Libertas
1 : 1
SC Faetano
12 Sept
Virtus
2 : 0
AC Libertas
09 Sept
AC Libertas
0 : 2
Folgore
05 Sept
AC Libertas
2 : 1
Juvenes/Dogana
29 Aug
SP Cosmos
1 : 1
AC Libertas
Page 1 of 6

SP Cosmos

(Away)
18 Sept
SS Murata
0 : 2
SP Cosmos
13 Sept
SP Cosmos
6 : 1
SS Pennarossa
08 Sept
San Giovanni
0 : 1
SP Cosmos
04 Sept
Tre Penne
2 : 0
SP Cosmos
29 Aug
SP Cosmos
1 : 1
AC Libertas
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tre Fiori 30 22 7 1 63:13 73
2 Virtus 30 22 6 2 76:20 72
3 Tre Penne 30 21 7 2 71:18 70
4 La Fiorita 30 17 11 2 64:25 57
5 Folgore 30 16 9 5 67:33 57
6 SP Domagnano 30 14 7 9 59:36 49
7 Fiorentino 30 14 4 12 37:42 46
8 SP Cosmos 30 11 9 10 30:23 42
9 Juvenes/Dogana 30 9 10 11 36:38 37
10 AC Libertas 30 9 8 13 32:63 35
11 SS Pennarossa 30 8 8 14 29:53 32
12 San Giovanni 30 7 10 13 24:43 31
13 SC Faetano 30 6 4 20 22:55 22
14 San Marino Academy U22 30 3 7 20 23:60 16
15 Cailungo 30 2 5 23 23:71 11
16 SS Murata 30 1 4 25 20:83 -2
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Campionato Sammarinese 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Campionato Sammarinese 2025/2026 (Play Offs)