Sport Picks

Stadium Background

AC Milan U23 vs Vogherese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 Stadio Felice Chinetti, Solbiate Arno
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Pagliei M.
18' Event
Magrassi A.
23' Event
Own Goal

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 game between AC Milan U23 and Vogherese finished 10-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward AC Milan U23.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
AC Milan U23
15%
Draws
0%
Vogherese
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: AC Milan U23

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Vogherese haven't matched AC Milan U23's recent run of results.
  • Model gives AC Milan U23 a 85% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 69%
Over 4.5 Goals 31%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
AC Milan U23 Clean Sheet 68%
Vogherese Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AC Milan U23 Vogherese
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 2
Draws 6 6
Losses 12 22
Goals Scored 1.8 0.63
Goals Conceded 1.27 2.53
Expected Goals (xG) 3.88 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Serie D - Group B
AC Milan U23 vs Vogherese
10:1
Dec 21, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Vogherese vs AC Milan U23
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AC Milan U23 Compare

Top Goalscorer Magrassi A.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Pagliei M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.98
Avg xA / game 1.94

Vogherese Compare

Top Goalscorer Zito G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AC Milan U23 95 / 100
Vogherese 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AC Milan U23 Vogherese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AC Milan U23 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AC Milan U23 scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

Vogherese's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 7.50 goals per match.

Away concern: Vogherese has suffered 5 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

AC Milan U23 VS Vogherese
2.63 Goals Scored 0.75
0.88 Goals Conceded 5.13
63% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 88%

Recent Form & Match History

AC Milan U23

(Home)
04 Aug
Monza
4 : 2
AC Milan U23
10 May
Chievo
2 : 1
AC Milan U23
03 May
AC Milan U23
10 : 1
Vogherese
26 Apr
Castellanzese
1 : 3
AC Milan U23
19 Apr
AC Milan U23
0 : 1
Varesina
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Vogherese

(Away)
03 May
AC Milan U23
10 : 1
Vogherese
26 Apr
Vogherese
0 : 6
Caldiero Terme
19 Apr
Ciserano-Bergamo
6 : 1
Vogherese
11 Apr
Vogherese
0 : 4
USD Casatese
02 Apr
Chievo
4 : 1
Vogherese
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Folgore Caratese 34 19 11 4 58:27 68
2 USD Casatese 34 16 13 5 49:28 61
3 Chievo 34 18 6 10 52:43 60
4 AC Milan U23 34 16 8 10 62:37 56
5 AC Leon 34 14 11 9 44:34 53
6 Brusaporto 34 15 6 13 41:38 51
7 Oltrepo 34 15 8 11 38:36 50
8 Scanzorosciate 34 11 14 9 41:33 47
9 Villa Valle 34 13 8 13 43:46 47
10 Ciserano-Bergamo 34 11 13 10 33:31 46
11 Caldiero Terme 34 10 15 9 50:40 45
12 Real Calepina 34 11 9 14 42:47 42
13 Castellanzese 34 10 11 13 41:39 41
14 Breno 34 9 11 14 39:51 38
15 Pavia 34 9 10 15 36:47 37
16 Varesina 34 7 15 12 38:44 36
17 Sondrio 34 8 7 19 37:64 31
18 Vogherese 34 2 8 24 21:80 -17
Promotion - Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Out)