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AC Milan vs Cagliari - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie A 2025/2026 Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (San Siro), Milan
Our Tip

Match Events

2'
Pedro J.
2' Event
Saelemaekers A.
Assist: Gimenez S.
20' Event
Borrelli G.

AI Match Summary

Cagliari in this Serie A 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Cagliari.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
AC Milan
20%
Draws
42%
Cagliari
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Cagliari

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Cagliari have won more games recently than AC Milan.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on AC Milan taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
AC Milan Clean Sheet 19%
Cagliari Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AC Milan Cagliari
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 12 14
Draws 7 5
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 1.32 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.18 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 24, 2026 Serie A
AC Milan vs Cagliari
1:2
Jan 2, 2026 Serie A
Cagliari vs AC Milan
0:1
Jan 11, 2025 Serie A
AC Milan vs Cagliari
1:1
Nov 9, 2024 Serie A
Cagliari vs AC Milan
3:3
May 11, 2024 Serie A
AC Milan vs Cagliari
5:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AC Milan Compare

Top Goalscorer Saelemaekers A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Cagliari Compare

Top Goalscorer Borrelli G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Rodriguez J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AC Milan 42 / 100
Cagliari 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AC Milan Cagliari

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.60 goals as a typical output.

AC Milan found the back of the net in 71% of recent matches (28 games).

AC Milan has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Cagliari let in goals in 59% of their last 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

AC Milan VS Cagliari
1.5 Goals Scored 1
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.5
100% Over 1.5 25%
50% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

AC Milan

(Home)
20 Sept
AC Milan
3 : 0
Lecce
16 Sept
AC Milan
0 : 2
Benfica
12 Sept
Lazio
2 : 2
AC Milan
06 Sept
Juventus
1 : 1
AC Milan
28 Aug
AC Milan
2 : 0
Venezia
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Cagliari

(Away)
19 Sept
Udinese
0 : 1
Cagliari
12 Sept
Atalanta
1 : 2
Cagliari
07 Sept
Cagliari
1 : 0
Lecce
03 Sept
Cagliari
1 : 2
Verona
30 Aug
Cagliari
0 : 1
Inter
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Inter 38 27 6 5 89:35 87
2 Napoli 38 23 7 8 58:36 76
3 AS Roma 38 23 4 11 59:31 73
4 Como 38 20 11 7 65:29 71
5 AC Milan 38 20 10 8 53:35 70
6 Juventus 38 19 12 7 61:34 69
7 Atalanta 38 15 14 9 51:36 59
8 Bologna 38 16 8 14 49:46 56
9 Lazio 38 14 12 12 41:40 54
10 Udinese 38 14 8 16 45:48 50
11 Sassuolo 38 14 7 17 46:50 49
12 Torino 38 12 9 17 44:63 45
13 Parma 38 11 12 15 28:46 45
14 Cagliari 38 11 10 17 40:53 43
15 Fiorentina 38 9 15 14 41:50 42
16 Genoa 38 10 11 17 41:51 41
17 Lecce 38 10 8 20 28:50 38
18 Cremonese 38 8 10 20 32:57 34
19 Verona 38 3 12 23 25:61 21
20 Pisa 38 2 12 24 26:71 18
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B (Main)