Sport Picks

Stadium Background

AC Milan W vs Fiorentina W

Italy Italy

Serie A Women 2025/2026 Centro Sportivo Peppino Vismara, Milan
Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Janogy M.
Assist: Bredgaard S.
28'
Cherubini M.
36'
Sub
Bredgaard S. In: Bonfantini A.
Out: Bredgaard S.

AI Match Summary

The Serie A Women 2025/2026 game between AC Milan W and Fiorentina W finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Fiorentina W.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
AC Milan W
20%
Draws
40%
Fiorentina W
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Fiorentina W carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
AC Milan W Clean Sheet 15%
Fiorentina W Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AC Milan W Fiorentina W
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 12 14
Draws 7 7
Losses 10 9
Goals Scored 1.41 1.57
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 14, 2026 Serie A Women
AC Milan W vs Fiorentina W
0:1
Jan 29, 2026 Coppa Italia Women
Fiorentina W vs AC Milan W
1:0
Jan 20, 2026 Coppa Italia Women
AC Milan W vs Fiorentina W
1:1
Oct 18, 2025 Serie A Women
Fiorentina W vs AC Milan W
4:3
Apr 12, 2025 Serie A Women
AC Milan W vs Fiorentina W
5:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AC Milan W Compare

Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Fiorentina W Compare

Top Goalscorer Janogy M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AC Milan W 31 / 100
Fiorentina W 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AC Milan W Fiorentina W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Fiorentina W Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.80 goals per match.

AC Milan W's goal record stands at 66% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Fiorentina W's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 30 matches.

Recent resilience: AC Milan W stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

AC Milan W VS Fiorentina W
1.13 Goals Scored 2.13
1 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

AC Milan W

(Home)
06 Sept
Juventus W
1 : 0
AC Milan W
29 Aug
AC Milan W
2 : 1
Como 1907 W
22 Aug
AC Milan W
1 : 1
Como W
25 Jul
Zurich W
2 : 3
AC Milan W
17 May
Ternana W
1 : 0
AC Milan W
Page 1 of 6

Fiorentina W

(Away)
05 Sept
AS Roma W
3 : 0
Fiorentina W
30 Aug
Fiorentina W
3 : 1
Ternana W
23 Aug
Fiorentina W
1 : 2
Sassuolo W
08 Aug
Fiorentina W
1 : 1
Manchester City W
05 Aug
Cesena W
0 : 6
Fiorentina W
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 AS Roma W 22 17 4 1 44:19 55
2 Inter W 22 13 5 4 49:26 44
3 Juventus W 22 11 6 5 33:19 39
4 Fiorentina W 22 10 6 6 33:30 36
5 Lazio W 22 10 3 9 31:30 33
6 AC Milan W 22 9 5 8 31:26 32
7 Napoli W 22 8 8 6 30:25 32
8 Como W 22 8 6 8 24:22 30
9 Sassuolo W 22 4 6 12 17:34 18
10 Ternana W 22 4 5 13 19:40 17
11 Parma W 22 2 10 10 16:31 16
12 Genoa W 22 2 4 16 18:43 10
Promotion - UEFA Champions League Women (League phase)
Relegation - Serie B Women (Main)