Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Academia vs Nova Mutum EC

Brazil Brazil

Matogrossense 2024
Our Tip

Match Events

27' Event
Lima V.
55' Event
Hippolito
73' Event
Roberto J.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Academia in this Matogrossense 2024 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Academia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Academia
15%
Draws
85%
Nova Mutum EC
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Nova Mutum EC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Nova Mutum EC lately — more wins on the board than Academia.
  • Win probability leans Nova Mutum EC's way, sitting at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Academia Clean Sheet 18%
Nova Mutum EC Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Academia Nova Mutum EC
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 7 13
Draws 3 7
Losses 20 11
Goals Scored 0.9 1.23
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 11, 2025 Matogrossense
Nova Mutum EC vs Academia
1:0
Oct 26, 2024 Copa FMF (Mato Grosso)
Nova Mutum EC vs Academia
1:0
Oct 19, 2024 Copa FMF (Mato Grosso)
Academia vs Nova Mutum EC
1:1
Oct 12, 2024 Copa FMF (Mato Grosso)
Nova Mutum EC vs Academia
1:0
Feb 10, 2024 Matogrossense
Academia vs Nova Mutum EC
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Academia Compare

Top Goalscorer Hippolito
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Nova Mutum EC Compare

Top Goalscorer Lima V.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Academia 15 / 100
Nova Mutum EC 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Academia Nova Mutum EC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nova Mutum EC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nova Mutum EC's defensive record shows goals conceded in 65% of 31 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.

Academia found the back of the net in 50% of recent matches (30 games).

Nova Mutum EC's recent record shows 2 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Academia VS Nova Mutum EC
0.25 Goals Scored 0.88
1.75 Goals Conceded 2.63
50% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Academia

(Home)
22 Feb
Academia
0 : 1
Luverdense
15 Feb
Sport Sinop
2 : 0
Academia
08 Feb
Mixto
3 : 1
Academia
02 Feb
Academia
0 : 1
Cuiaba
29 Jan
Academia
0 : 1
Primavera AC
Page 1 of 6

Nova Mutum EC

(Away)
11 Feb
Operario VG
3 : 2
Nova Mutum EC
08 Feb
Nova Mutum EC
2 : 1
Mixto
05 Feb
Várzea Grande EC
1 : 3
Nova Mutum EC
31 Jan
Cuiaba
2 : 1
Nova Mutum EC
28 Jan
Nova Mutum EC
3 : 2
Chapada
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Uniao Rondonopolis 9 8 1 0 19:5 25
2 Cuiaba 9 5 4 0 20:8 19
3 Luverdense 9 5 2 2 15:9 17
4 Operario VG 9 4 2 3 10:10 14
5 Mixto 9 3 3 3 12:13 12
6 Nova Mutum EC 9 3 2 4 9:9 11
7 Primavera AC 9 1 5 3 5:8 8
8 Academia 9 2 0 7 8:14 6
9 Dom Bosco 9 1 3 5 6:18 6
10 Araguaia 9 1 2 6 4:14 5
Promotion - Matogrossense 2024 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Matogrossense 2024 (Play Offs)