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Acao W vs Várzea Grande EC W

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Matogrossense Women 2024
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Acao W play Várzea Grande EC W in the Matogrossense Women 2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, Acao W averaged 1.06 goals scored and 1.06 conceded. Várzea Grande EC W averaged 1.67 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. In past meetings, Acao W won 1, Várzea Grande EC W won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on Oct 9, 2025 ended 2:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.48 for Acao W and 1.50 for Várzea Grande EC W. This points to a Várzea Grande EC W double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Acao W
27%
Draws
37%
Várzea Grande EC W
Draw rate projection: 27% Favored: Várzea Grande EC W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence
  • Acao W picked up more points recently compared to Várzea Grande EC W.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.48 vs 1.50 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 64%
Over 2.5 Goals 40%
Over 3.5 Goals 24%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 40%
Acao W Clean Sheet 16%
Várzea Grande EC W Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 58%
Second Half Goal 61%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Acao W Várzea Grande EC W
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 13 13
Draws 6 7
Losses 13 10
Goals Scored 1.06 1.67
Goals Conceded 1.06 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.86
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.57

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 9, 2025 Matogrossense Women
Várzea Grande EC W vs Acao W
2:2
Oct 4, 2025 Matogrossense Women
Acao W vs Várzea Grande EC W
1:0
Aug 30, 2025 Matogrossense Women
Acao W vs Várzea Grande EC W
0:2
Sep 6, 2024 Matogrossense Women
Várzea Grande EC W vs Acao W
1:0
Aug 30, 2024 Matogrossense Women
Acao W vs Várzea Grande EC W
0:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Acao W 36 / 100
Várzea Grande EC W 35 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Acao W Várzea Grande EC W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Várzea Grande EC W or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +28.5%
3.57
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +17.6%
2.94
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Acao W attacking → ← attacking Várzea Grande EC W

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Acao W scored in 59% of their last 32 games.

Várzea Grande EC W let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Acao W went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Várzea Grande EC W lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

45 Points in last 5 46
1.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.86
1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.57