Sport Picks

Stadium Background

A.C.D. Nardo vs Ferrandina

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group H 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

62' Event
D'Anna S.

AI Match Summary

A.C.D. Nardo in this Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored A.C.D. Nardo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
A.C.D. Nardo
20%
Draws
29%
Ferrandina
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: A.C.D. Nardo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to A.C.D. Nardo lately — more wins on the board than Ferrandina.
  • Win probability leans A.C.D. Nardo's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26%
A.C.D. Nardo Clean Sheet 68%
Ferrandina Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric A.C.D. Nardo Ferrandina
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 13 6
Draws 12 8
Losses 5 16
Goals Scored 1.27 0.67
Goals Conceded 0.7 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 0.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Serie D - Group H
Ferrandina vs A.C.D. Nardo
1:0
Dec 14, 2025 Serie D - Group H
A.C.D. Nardo vs Ferrandina
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

A.C.D. Nardo Compare

Top Goalscorer D'Anna S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Ferrandina Compare

Avg xG / game 0.4
Avg xA / game 0.24

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

A.C.D. Nardo 95 / 100
Ferrandina 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
A.C.D. Nardo Ferrandina

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NAR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

A.C.D. Nardo's goal record stands at 70% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Defensive concern: Ferrandina conceded in 70% of 30 recent games.

Solid form: A.C.D. Nardo remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Difficult form: Ferrandina registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

A.C.D. Nardo VS Ferrandina
1.13 Goals Scored 0.38
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.88
50% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

A.C.D. Nardo

(Home)
10 May
Martina Calcio
2 : 1
A.C.D. Nardo
03 May
A.C.D. Nardo
1 : 0
Barletta
26 Apr
Ferrandina
1 : 0
A.C.D. Nardo
19 Apr
A.C.D. Nardo
2 : 0
Manfredonia
12 Apr
Sarnese
0 : 0
A.C.D. Nardo
Page 1 of 6

Ferrandina

(Away)
03 May
Heraclea
2 : 1
Ferrandina
26 Apr
Ferrandina
1 : 0
A.C.D. Nardo
19 Apr
SS Nola 1925
0 : 0
Ferrandina
12 Apr
Ferrandina
0 : 5
Gravina
02 Apr
Citta di Fasano
2 : 0
Ferrandina
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Barletta 34 20 10 4 54:20 70
2 Martina Calcio 34 18 8 8 47:30 62
3 Citta di Fasano 34 18 8 8 51:35 62
4 Paganese 34 17 7 10 36:32 58
5 A.C.D. Nardo 34 14 13 7 40:27 55
6 Gravina 34 16 7 11 50:40 55
7 Afragolese 34 13 10 11 45:46 49
8 Fidelis Andria 34 13 9 12 35:28 48
9 Virtus Francavilla 34 12 12 10 45:40 48
10 Real Normanna 34 10 13 11 27:26 43
11 Francavilla 34 11 10 13 39:38 43
12 Manfredonia 34 11 10 13 34:39 43
13 Sarnese 34 9 14 11 51:49 41
14 SS Nola 1925 34 11 8 15 42:50 41
15 Heraclea 34 10 8 16 31:39 38
16 Pompei 34 9 7 18 26:38 34
17 Ferrandina 34 7 9 18 21:43 30
18 Acerrana 34 3 5 26 20:74 14
Promotion - Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 (Play Out)