Sport Picks

Stadium Background

A.C.D. Nardo vs Gravina - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group H
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VS
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

A.C.D. Nardo host Gravina in the Serie D - Group H. This one's hard to separate. Gravina have shipped 1.23 goals a game lately, while A.C.D. Nardo have conceded 1.03 and scored 1.06. Past meetings favor A.C.D. Nardo slightly — 2-1-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jan 18, 2026, ending 2:2. Model xG sits at 0.76 vs 1.75, favoring Gravina. The model calls this a Draw — both sides look evenly matched.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
A.C.D. Nardo
35%
Draws
32%
Gravina
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Gravina lately — more wins on the board than A.C.D. Nardo.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
A.C.D. Nardo Clean Sheet 12%
Gravina Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric A.C.D. Nardo Gravina
Matches Played 32 31
Wins 11 16
Draws 12 6
Losses 9 9
Goals Scored 1.06 1.65
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 0.76 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 18, 2026 Serie D - Group H
Gravina vs A.C.D. Nardo
2:2
Sep 21, 2025 Serie D - Group H
A.C.D. Nardo vs Gravina
1:1
Mar 2, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Gravina vs A.C.D. Nardo
2:0
Oct 27, 2024 Serie D - Group H
A.C.D. Nardo vs Gravina
5:1
Jan 21, 2024 Serie D - Group H
A.C.D. Nardo vs Gravina
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

A.C.D. Nardo 30 / 100
Gravina 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
A.C.D. Nardo Gravina

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

A.C.D. Nardo scored in 66% of their last 32 games.

Gravina let in goals in 68% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Solid form: A.C.D. Nardo remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

A.C.D. Nardo VS Gravina
0.63 Goals Scored 2.25
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

A.C.D. Nardo

(Home)
04 Oct
Palmese 1914
4 : 2
A.C.D. Nardo
27 Sept
A.C.D. Nardo
0 : 3
Martina Calcio
20 Sept
Ischia
1 : 2
A.C.D. Nardo
16 Sept
A.C.D. Nardo
0 : 0
Melfi
12 Sept
Ebolitana
1 : 1
A.C.D. Nardo
Page 1 of 7

Gravina

(Away)
07 Oct
Virtus Francavilla
3 : 0
Gravina
04 Oct
Gravina
4 : 2
Virtus Francavilla
27 Sept
Real Normanna
1 : 0
Gravina
20 Sept
Gravina
2 : 2
Real Forio 2014
16 Sept
Turris
0 : 0
Gravina
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Virtus Francavilla 6 5 0 1 12:8 15
2 Nocerina 6 4 1 1 12:8 13
3 Martina Calcio 6 4 0 2 12:7 12
4 Bisceglie 6 4 0 2 11:6 12
5 Turris 6 3 3 0 9:5 12
6 Gravina 6 3 2 1 12:7 11
7 Manfredonia 6 3 2 1 10:6 11
8 Real Normanna 6 3 1 2 10:10 10
9 Brindisi 6 3 0 3 8:8 9
10 Ebolitana 6 2 2 2 6:8 8
11 Real Forio 2014 6 2 1 3 10:10 7
12 San Felice Gladiator 6 2 1 3 9:11 7
13 Palmese 1914 6 2 1 3 9:12 7
14 A.C.D. Nardo 6 1 2 3 5:11 5
15 Melfi 6 1 1 4 2:6 4
16 Fidelis Andria 6 1 1 4 6:11 4
17 Francavilla 6 1 0 5 3:7 3
18 Ischia 6 0 2 4 7:12 2
Promotion - Serie D - Group H (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H (Play Out)