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A.C.D. Nardo vs Matera

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group H 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

22' Event
Citro N.
44'
Maletic M.
45' Event
Napolitano L.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group H 2024/2025 game between A.C.D. Nardo and Matera finished 0-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Matera.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
A.C.D. Nardo
30%
Draws
37%
Matera
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Matera

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and A.C.D. Nardo come out ahead of Matera on wins alone.
  • A.C.D. Nardo are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group H 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 28%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
A.C.D. Nardo Clean Sheet 20%
Matera Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric A.C.D. Nardo Matera
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 13 10
Draws 13 10
Losses 5 10
Goals Scored 1.26 1.47
Goals Conceded 0.71 1.6
Expected Goals (xG) 1.23 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 12, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Matera vs A.C.D. Nardo
1:1
Sep 15, 2024 Serie D - Group H
A.C.D. Nardo vs Matera
0:4
Mar 3, 2024 Serie D - Group H
Matera vs A.C.D. Nardo
2:1
Oct 29, 2023 Serie D - Group H
A.C.D. Nardo vs Matera
1:0
Jan 15, 2023 Serie D - Group H
A.C.D. Nardo vs Matera
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

A.C.D. Nardo Compare

Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.61

Matera Compare

Top Goalscorer Citro N.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Napolitano L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

A.C.D. Nardo 42 / 100
Matera 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
A.C.D. Nardo Matera

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Matera let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

A.C.D. Nardo's goal record stands at 71% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

A.C.D. Nardo has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

A.C.D. Nardo VS -
1.25 Goals Scored 0
0.75 Goals Conceded 0
50% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

A.C.D. Nardo

(Home)
10 May
Martina Calcio
2 : 1
A.C.D. Nardo
03 May
A.C.D. Nardo
1 : 0
Barletta
26 Apr
Ferrandina
1 : 0
A.C.D. Nardo
19 Apr
A.C.D. Nardo
2 : 0
Manfredonia
12 Apr
Sarnese
0 : 0
A.C.D. Nardo
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Matera

(Away)
04 May
Matera
2 : 2
Nocerina
27 Apr
ASD Ugento
1 : 4
Matera
17 Apr
Matera
3 : 1
Angri
13 Apr
Matera
2 : 2
Virtus Francavilla
06 Apr
Costa Amalfi
4 : 2
Matera
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Casarano 34 21 11 2 72:30 74
2 Nocerina 34 20 10 4 64:27 70
3 Martina Calcio 34 17 11 6 48:28 62
4 Fidelis Andria 34 16 9 9 41:29 57
5 Citta di Fasano 34 13 11 10 45:32 50
6 Matera 34 12 13 9 51:47 49
7 Virtus Francavilla 34 12 11 11 41:34 47
8 A.C.D. Nardo 34 13 8 13 47:45 47
9 Ischia 34 11 12 11 39:45 45
10 Palmese 1914 34 10 12 12 41:45 42
11 Gravina 34 11 9 14 43:46 42
12 Francavilla 34 11 8 15 28:34 41
13 Acerrana 34 11 8 15 37:50 41
14 ASD Ugento 34 10 7 17 33:51 37
15 Manfredonia 34 8 11 15 33:51 35
16 Brindisi 34 9 14 11 44:43 27
17 Angri 34 6 8 20 35:69 26
18 Costa Amalfi 34 3 11 20 26:62 20
Promotion - Serie D - Group H 2024/2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H 2024/2025 (Play Out)