Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Acerrana vs Gravina

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group H
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Santoro D.

AI Match Summary

Gravina in this Serie D - Group H matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Gravina.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Acerrana
6%
Draws
90%
Gravina
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Gravina

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Gravina lately — more wins on the board than Acerrana.
  • Model gives Gravina a 90% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64.6%
Acerrana Clean Sheet 10%
Gravina Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Acerrana Gravina
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 3 16
Draws 3 5
Losses 24 10
Goals Scored 1.25 1.38
Goals Conceded 2.63 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.63 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 8, 2026 Serie D - Group H
Acerrana vs Gravina
0:1
Oct 5, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Gravina vs Acerrana
4:1
May 4, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Acerrana vs Gravina
2:1
Dec 22, 2024 Serie D - Group H
Gravina vs Acerrana
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Acerrana Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Gravina Compare

Top Goalscorer Santoro D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Acerrana 10 / 100
Gravina 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Acerrana Gravina

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GRA Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Acerrana scored in 40% of their last 30 games.

Defensive concern: Gravina conceded in 58% of 31 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Acerrana VS Gravina
1.25 Goals Scored 1.38
2.63 Goals Conceded 0.63
63% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 25%
63% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Acerrana

(Home)
03 May
Acerrana
1 : 2
Manfredonia
26 Apr
Barletta
3 : 0
Acerrana
19 Apr
Acerrana
1 : 3
Pompei
12 Apr
Francavilla
4 : 1
Acerrana
02 Apr
Acerrana
2 : 5
Sarnese
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Gravina

(Away)
03 May
Gravina
3 : 2
Real Normanna
26 Apr
Afragolese
0 : 6
Gravina
19 Apr
Gravina
1 : 0
Paganese
12 Apr
Ferrandina
0 : 5
Gravina
02 Apr
Gravina
0 : 0
Martina Calcio
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Barletta342010454:2070
2Martina Calcio34188847:3062
3Citta di Fasano34188851:3562
4Paganese341771036:3258
5A.C.D. Nardo341413740:2755
6Gravina341671150:4055
7Afragolese3413101145:4649
8Fidelis Andria341391235:2848
9Virtus Francavilla3412121045:4048
10Real Normanna3410131127:2643
11Francavilla3411101339:3843
12Manfredonia3411101334:3943
13Sarnese349141151:4941
14SS Nola 1925341181542:5041
15Heraclea341081631:3938
16Pompei34971826:3834
17Ferrandina34791821:4330
18Acerrana34352620:7414
Promotion - Serie D - Group H (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H (Play Out)