Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Acerrana vs Virtus Francavilla

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group H
Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Sosa F.

AI Match Summary

Virtus Francavilla in this Serie D - Group H matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Virtus Francavilla.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
Acerrana
28%
Draws
50%
Virtus Francavilla
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Virtus Francavilla

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Acerrana haven't matched Virtus Francavilla's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Virtus Francavilla's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group H form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 4 times recently and Virtus Francavilla have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
Acerrana Clean Sheet 12%
Virtus Francavilla Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Acerrana Virtus Francavilla
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 3 11
Draws 3 10
Losses 24 9
Goals Scored 1.13 1.13
Goals Conceded 2.38 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.38 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 22, 2026 Serie D - Group H
Acerrana vs Virtus Francavilla
0:1
Nov 9, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Virtus Francavilla vs Acerrana
3:0
Feb 2, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Acerrana vs Virtus Francavilla
3:1
Oct 6, 2024 Serie D - Group H
Virtus Francavilla vs Acerrana
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Acerrana Compare

Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Virtus Francavilla Compare

Top Goalscorer Sosa F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Acerrana 22 / 100
Virtus Francavilla 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Acerrana Virtus Francavilla

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick VIR Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Virtus Francavilla conceded in 63% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.75 goals per match.

Away concern: Virtus Francavilla has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Acerrana scored in 40% of their last 30 games.

Scoring Trends

Acerrana VS Virtus Francavilla
1.13 Goals Scored 1.13
2.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Acerrana

(Home)
03 May
Acerrana
1 : 2
Manfredonia
26 Apr
Barletta
3 : 0
Acerrana
19 Apr
Acerrana
1 : 3
Pompei
12 Apr
Francavilla
4 : 1
Acerrana
02 Apr
Acerrana
2 : 5
Sarnese
Page 1 of 6

Virtus Francavilla

(Away)
03 May
Virtus Francavilla
2 : 2
Sarnese
26 Apr
Pompei
4 : 1
Virtus Francavilla
19 Apr
Virtus Francavilla
0 : 3
Francavilla
12 Apr
Virtus Francavilla
0 : 2
Fidelis Andria
02 Apr
Afragolese
2 : 2
Virtus Francavilla
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Barletta342010454:2070
2Martina Calcio34188847:3062
3Citta di Fasano34188851:3562
4Paganese341771036:3258
5A.C.D. Nardo341413740:2755
6Gravina341671150:4055
7Afragolese3413101145:4649
8Fidelis Andria341391235:2848
9Virtus Francavilla3412121045:4048
10Real Normanna3410131127:2643
11Francavilla3411101339:3843
12Manfredonia3411101334:3943
13Sarnese349141151:4941
14SS Nola 1925341181542:5041
15Heraclea341081631:3938
16Pompei34971826:3834
17Ferrandina34791821:4330
18Acerrana34352620:7414
Promotion - Serie D - Group H (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H (Play Out)