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AD Ceuta vs Leiria Prediction & H2H Stats

World World

Club Friendly 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Munoz J.
14' Event
van der Gaag J.
40' Event
van der Gaag J.

AI Match Summary

Leiria in this Club Friendly 2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Leiria.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
AD Ceuta
20%
Draws
61%
Leiria
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Leiria

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

61% / High Confidence
  • AD Ceuta haven't matched Leiria's recent run of results.
  • Leiria are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
AD Ceuta Clean Sheet 10%
Leiria Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AD Ceuta Leiria
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 9 12
Draws 6 6
Losses 12 10
Goals Scored 1.15 1.68
Goals Conceded 1.78 1.36
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 13, 2025 Club Friendly
AD Ceuta vs Leiria
1:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AD Ceuta Compare

Top Goalscorer Diez R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Leiria Compare

Top Goalscorer van der Gaag J.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Munoz J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AD Ceuta 18 / 100
Leiria 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AD Ceuta Leiria

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Leiria Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 5.00 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: AD Ceuta scored in 70% of their last 27 outings.

Defensive concern: Leiria conceded in 71% of 28 recent games.

Recent resilience: AD Ceuta stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

AD Ceuta VS Leiria
1 Goals Scored 1.5
2.25 Goals Conceded 0.88
100% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

AD Ceuta

(Home)
26 Sept
AD Ceuta
3 : 1
Real Sociedad B
20 Sept
AD Ceuta
1 : 1
Valladolid
11 Sept
Burgos CF
3 : 1
AD Ceuta
05 Sept
AD Ceuta
0 : 2
Celta Vigo B
30 Aug
Mallorca
3 : 0
AD Ceuta
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Leiria

(Away)
19 Sept
O Elvas CAD
0 : 2
Leiria
13 Sept
Amarante FC
2 : 2
Leiria
06 Sept
Leiria
1 : 0
Portimonense
28 Aug
Leiria
2 : 0
Tondela
22 Aug
Leixoes
2 : 4
Leiria
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