Sport Picks

Spain

Tercera Division - Group 7 2014/2015

Puerta Bonita

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

AD Colmenar play Puerta Bonita in the Tercera Division - Group 7 2014/2015. It looks like a close match. Recently, AD Colmenar averaged 1.33 goals scored and 1.77 conceded. Puerta Bonita averaged 1 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. In past meetings, AD Colmenar won 1, Puerta Bonita won 4, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 29, 2015 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.04 for AD Colmenar and 1.56 for Puerta Bonita. This points to a Puerta Bonita double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%

AD Colmenar

21%

Draws

41%

Puerta Bonita

Draw rate projection: 21% Favored: Puerta Bonita

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence

AD Colmenar picked up more points recently compared to Puerta Bonita.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.04 vs 1.56 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 80%

Over 2.5 Goals 49%

Over 3.5 Goals 29%

Over 4.5 Goals 15%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 52%

AD Colmenar Clean Sheet 15%

Puerta Bonita Clean Sheet 14%

First Half Goal 72%

Second Half Goal 76%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	AD Colmenar	Puerta Bonita
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	8	6
Draws	7	11
Losses	15	13
Goals Scored	1.33	1
Goals Conceded	1.77	1.33

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 29, 2015 Tercera RFEF - Group 7

AD Colmenar vs Puerta Bonita

Possession: 54% - 47% Cards: 2 - 4

0:1

Nov 9, 2014 Tercera RFEF - Group 7

Puerta Bonita vs AD Colmenar

Possession: 45% - 57% Cards: 1 - 2

2:1

May 19, 2013 Tercera RFEF - Group 7

Puerta Bonita vs AD Colmenar

Possession: 58% - 50% Cards: 3 - 2

4:3

Jan 6, 2013 Tercera RFEF - Group 7

AD Colmenar vs Puerta Bonita

Possession: 52% - 56% Cards: 2 - 2

1:3

Mar 25, 2012 Tercera RFEF - Group 7

Puerta Bonita vs AD Colmenar

Possession: 45% - 54% Cards: 3 - 3

1:4

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AD Colmenar 37 / 100

Puerta Bonita 40 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

AD Colmenar Puerta Bonita

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Puerta Bonita or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +26.5%

3.33

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +14.2%

2.33

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

AD Colmenar attacking → ← attacking Puerta Bonita

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AD Colmenar scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Puerta Bonita let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

AD Colmenar went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Puerta Bonita lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

31 Points in last 5 29

0.88 Goals expected (xG) 0.00

2.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Rayo Majadahonda	38	21	8	9	67:38	71
2	Navalcarnero	38	18	10	10	43:37	64
3	Mexico	38	17	13	8	59:39	64
4	Union Adarve	38	17	12	9	40:31	63
5	Alcorcon B	38	17	12	9	57:41	63
6	San Sebastian Reyes	38	18	8	12	47:32	62
7	DUX Internacional de Madrid	38	16	12	10	48:42	60
8	RSD Alcala	38	13	17	8	41:29	56
9	Real Madrid C	38	16	7	15	50:40	55
10	Pozuelo de Alarcon	38	16	6	16	46:45	54
11	Parla	38	14	11	13	47:39	53
12	Atletico Pinto	38	15	7	16	44:42	52
13	Atl. Madrid C	38	14	7	17	53:66	49
14	Puerta Bonita	38	12	11	15	42:44	47
15	CD Mostoles	38	11	13	14	44:46	46
16	San Fernando de Henares	38	9	17	12	35:42	44
17	Siello	38	10	13	15	37:51	43
18	Alcobendas	38	7	15	16	35:49	36
19	AD Colmenar	38	10	5	23	35:65	35
20	AD Torrejon	38	6	2	30	22:74	20