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AD Fafe vs Sao Joao de Ver

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 2025/2026 Parque Municipal dos Desportos de Fafe
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Match Events

9' Event
Pereira N.
Assist: Rai Nascimento
45' Event
Batista J.
46'
Barbosa D.

AI Match Summary

The Liga 3 2025/2026 game between AD Fafe and Sao Joao de Ver finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sao Joao de Ver.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
AD Fafe
39%
Draws
30%
Sao Joao de Ver
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • AD Fafe carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Liga 3 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
AD Fafe Clean Sheet 21%
Sao Joao de Ver Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AD Fafe Sao Joao de Ver
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 16 9
Draws 7 11
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 0.75 1.25
Goals Conceded 1 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 28, 2026 Liga 3
AD Fafe vs Sao Joao de Ver
1:2
Feb 21, 2026 Liga 3
Sao Joao de Ver vs AD Fafe
1:0
Jan 10, 2026 Liga 3
Sao Joao de Ver vs AD Fafe
0:4
Oct 5, 2025 Liga 3
AD Fafe vs Sao Joao de Ver
2:0
Jan 11, 2025 Liga 3
Sao Joao de Ver vs AD Fafe
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AD Fafe Compare

Top Goalscorer Batista J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Sao Joao de Ver Compare

Top Goalscorer Pereira N.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AD Fafe 32 / 100
Sao Joao de Ver 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AD Fafe Sao Joao de Ver

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick JOA Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AD Fafe found the back of the net in 78% of recent matches (32 games).

Sao Joao de Ver let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: AD Fafe stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

AD Fafe VS Sao Joao de Ver
0.75 Goals Scored 1.25
1 Goals Conceded 0.75
50% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%