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AD Llerenense vs Jaraiz - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

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Tercera RFEF - Group 14
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Match Events

68' Event
Peguero G.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 14 game between AD Llerenense and Jaraiz finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward AD Llerenense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

61%
AD Llerenense
20%
Draws
19%
Jaraiz
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: AD Llerenense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

61% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and AD Llerenense come out ahead of Jaraiz on wins alone.
  • Model gives AD Llerenense a 61% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
AD Llerenense Clean Sheet 20%
Jaraiz Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AD Llerenense Jaraiz
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 12 10
Draws 7 11
Losses 10 10
Goals Scored 1.17 1.32
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.26
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 19, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
AD Llerenense vs Jaraiz
1:0
Apr 26, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
AD Llerenense vs Jaraiz
1:1
Dec 20, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Jaraiz vs AD Llerenense
1:1
May 25, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Jaraiz vs AD Llerenense
1:2
May 18, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
AD Llerenense vs Jaraiz
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AD Llerenense Compare

Top Goalscorer Peguero G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Jaraiz Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AD Llerenense 76 / 100
Jaraiz 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AD Llerenense Jaraiz

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AD Llerenense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AD Llerenense went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

AD Llerenense's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Jaraiz's defensive record shows goals conceded in 74% of 31 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

AD Llerenense VS Jaraiz
1.25 Goals Scored 1.25
1 Goals Conceded 1.63
50% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

AD Llerenense

(Home)
27 Sept
CD Zafra
0 : 0
AD Llerenense
19 Sept
AD Llerenense
1 : 0
Jaraiz
13 Sept
Villanovense
0 : 1
AD Llerenense
06 Sept
AD Llerenense
1 : 0
Guadiana
09 May
AD Llerenense
3 : 1
CD Calamonte
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Jaraiz

(Away)
04 Oct
Montijo
2 : 0
Jaraiz
27 Sept
Jaraiz
2 : 1
SP Villafranca
19 Sept
AD Llerenense
1 : 0
Jaraiz
13 Sept
Jaraiz
2 : 3
Moralo
06 Sept
Jaraiz
2 : 2
Pueblonuevo
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CD Azuaga 5 5 0 0 14:2 15
2 Moralo 5 3 2 0 9:5 11
3 AD Llerenense 4 3 1 0 3:0 10
4 Castuera 4 3 0 1 8:3 9
5 Puebla de la Calzada 5 2 2 1 8:4 8
6 Gevora 5 2 2 1 8:9 8
7 CD Zafra 4 2 1 1 5:3 7
8 Villanovense 5 2 1 2 5:4 7
9 Santa Amalia 5 1 3 1 6:5 6
10 SP Villafranca 5 2 0 3 7:8 6
11 Montijo 5 2 0 3 6:8 6
12 Cabeza del Buey 5 1 2 2 6:6 5
13 Jerez CF 4 1 1 2 4:6 4
14 Jaraiz 5 1 1 3 6:9 4
15 Quintana 4 1 1 2 2:5 4
16 Pueblonuevo 5 0 3 2 5:10 3
17 UP Plasencia 4 0 1 3 2:8 1
18 Guadiana 5 0 1 4 2:11 1
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 (Play Offs)