Sport Picks
Match Events
90'
90'
Peguero G.
90'
90'
Cabeza Fernandez R.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
64%
15%
21%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: AD Llerenense
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
64%
/ High Confidence
- Form's been kind to AD Llerenense lately — more wins on the board than Jaraiz.
- Model gives AD Llerenense a 64% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
AD Llerenense Clean Sheet 20%
Jaraiz Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | AD Llerenense | Jaraiz |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 34 | 32 |
| Wins | 14 | 11 |
| Draws | 9 | 12 |
| Losses | 11 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.18 | 1.34 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.24 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.19 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 19, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
AD Llerenense vs Jaraiz
1:0
Apr 26, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
AD Llerenense vs Jaraiz
1:1
Dec 20, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Jaraiz vs AD Llerenense
1:1
May 25, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Jaraiz vs AD Llerenense
1:2
May 18, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
AD Llerenense vs Jaraiz
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
AD Llerenense Compare
Top Goalscorer Peguero G.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59
Jaraiz Compare
Top Goalscorer Cabeza Fernandez R.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
AD Llerenense 67 / 100
Jaraiz 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
AD Llerenense Jaraiz
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick AD Llerenense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
AD Llerenense scored in 76% of their last 34 games.
Jaraiz let in goals in 69% of their last 32 matches.
Games between these two average 2.20 goals.
Solid form: AD Llerenense remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
AD Llerenense VS Jaraiz
1.13 Goals Scored 0.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
AD Llerenense
(Home) 19 Sept
AD Llerenense
1 : 0 Jaraiz
13 Sept
Villanovense
0 : 1 AD Llerenense
06 Sept
AD Llerenense
1 : 0 Guadiana
09 May
AD Llerenense
3 : 1 CD Calamonte
01 May
Puebla de la Calzada
4 : 1 AD Llerenense
Page 1 of 7
19 Sept
AD Llerenense
1 : 0 Jaraiz
06 Sept
AD Llerenense
1 : 0 Guadiana
09 May
AD Llerenense
3 : 1 CD Calamonte
26 Apr
AD Llerenense
1 : 1 Jaraiz
12 Apr
AD Llerenense
0 : 2 Villanovense
Page 1 of 4
Jaraiz
(Away) 19 Sept
AD Llerenense
1 : 0 Jaraiz
13 Sept
Jaraiz
2 : 3 Moralo
06 Sept
Jaraiz
2 : 2 Pueblonuevo
24 May
CD Badajoz
2 : 0 Jaraiz
17 May
Jaraiz
1 : 0 CD Badajoz
Page 1 of 7
19 Sept
AD Llerenense
1 : 0 Jaraiz
24 May
CD Badajoz
2 : 0 Jaraiz
10 May
Villanovense
0 : 1 Jaraiz
26 Apr
AD Llerenense
1 : 1 Jaraiz
12 Apr
Pueblonuevo
1 : 0 Jaraiz
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Don Benito | 34 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 70:22 | 71 |
| 2 | CD Badajoz | 34 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 64:27 | 71 |
| 3 | Moralo | 34 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 54:32 | 62 |
| 4 | CD Azuaga | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 53:31 | 62 |
| 5 | Jaraiz | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 53:33 | 59 |
| 6 | Cabeza del Buey | 34 | 15 | 12 | 7 | 45:29 | 57 |
| 7 | SP Villafranca | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 45:40 | 55 |
| 8 | Villanovense | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 45:36 | 53 |
| 9 | Montijo | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 43:42 | 46 |
| 10 | Jerez CF | 34 | 8 | 17 | 9 | 56:51 | 41 |
| 11 | AD Llerenense | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 35:44 | 41 |
| 12 | Puebla de la Calzada | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 35:48 | 38 |
| 13 | Santa Amalia | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 30:52 | 34 |
| 14 | Gevora | 34 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 32:53 | 33 |
| 15 | Pueblonuevo | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 29:55 | 33 |
| 16 | CD Diocesano | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 33:63 | 30 |
| 17 | Montehermoso | 34 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 24:66 | 23 |
| 18 | CD Calamonte | 34 | 3 | 13 | 18 | 25:47 | 22 |
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
