Sport Picks
Match Events
7'
7'
Millan R. G.
63'
63'
Gomez Moreno J. J.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
54%
15%
31%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: AD Llerenense
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
15%
/ Low Confidence
- AD Llerenense have won more games recently than Jerez CF.
- Model gives AD Llerenense a 36% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
AD Llerenense Clean Sheet 17%
Jerez CF Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | AD Llerenense | Jerez CF |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 12 | 8 |
| Draws | 7 | 13 |
| Losses | 10 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 1.1 | 1.72 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.21 | 1.55 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.44 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 28, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
AD Llerenense vs Jerez CF
1:1
Nov 16, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Jerez CF vs AD Llerenense
4:1
Jan 19, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Jerez CF vs AD Llerenense
2:1
Sep 8, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
AD Llerenense vs Jerez CF
2:0
Aug 25, 2024 Club Friendly
Jerez CF vs AD Llerenense
1:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
AD Llerenense Compare
Top Goalscorer Millan R. G.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72
Jerez CF Compare
Top Goalscorer Gomez Moreno J. J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
AD Llerenense 36 / 100
Jerez CF 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
AD Llerenense Jerez CF
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Jerez CF has conceded goals in 83% of their last 29 outings.
AD Llerenense scored in 76% of their last 29 games.
H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.
Recent resilience: AD Llerenense stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
AD Llerenense VS Jerez CF
1.13 Goals Scored 1.38
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.75
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
AD Llerenense
(Home) 19 Sept
AD Llerenense
1 : 0 Jaraiz
13 Sept
Villanovense
0 : 1 AD Llerenense
06 Sept
AD Llerenense
1 : 0 Guadiana
09 May
AD Llerenense
3 : 1 CD Calamonte
01 May
Puebla de la Calzada
4 : 1 AD Llerenense
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
AD Llerenense
1 : 0 Jaraiz
06 Sept
AD Llerenense
1 : 0 Guadiana
09 May
AD Llerenense
3 : 1 CD Calamonte
26 Apr
AD Llerenense
1 : 1 Jaraiz
12 Apr
AD Llerenense
0 : 2 Villanovense
Page 1 of 3
Jerez CF
(Away) 20 Sept
Jerez CF
1 : 2 Castuera
13 Sept
Cabeza del Buey
0 : 1 Jerez CF
06 Sept
Jerez CF
2 : 2 Puebla de la Calzada
10 May
Jerez CF
5 : 1 Montehermoso
03 May
SP Villafranca
2 : 1 Jerez CF
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
Cabeza del Buey
0 : 1 Jerez CF
03 May
SP Villafranca
2 : 1 Jerez CF
26 Apr
Villanovense
2 : 0 Jerez CF
12 Apr
Cabeza del Buey
3 : 0 Jerez CF
28 Mar
AD Llerenense
1 : 1 Jerez CF
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Don Benito | 34 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 70:22 | 71 |
| 2 | CD Badajoz | 34 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 64:27 | 71 |
| 3 | Moralo | 34 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 54:32 | 62 |
| 4 | CD Azuaga | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 53:31 | 62 |
| 5 | Jaraiz | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 53:33 | 59 |
| 6 | Cabeza del Buey | 34 | 15 | 12 | 7 | 45:29 | 57 |
| 7 | SP Villafranca | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 45:40 | 55 |
| 8 | Villanovense | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 45:36 | 53 |
| 9 | Montijo | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 43:42 | 46 |
| 10 | Jerez CF | 34 | 8 | 17 | 9 | 56:51 | 41 |
| 11 | AD Llerenense | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 35:44 | 41 |
| 12 | Puebla de la Calzada | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 35:48 | 38 |
| 13 | Santa Amalia | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 30:52 | 34 |
| 14 | Gevora | 34 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 32:53 | 33 |
| 15 | Pueblonuevo | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 29:55 | 33 |
| 16 | CD Diocesano | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 33:63 | 30 |
| 17 | Montehermoso | 34 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 24:66 | 23 |
| 18 | CD Calamonte | 34 | 3 | 13 | 18 | 25:47 | 22 |
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
