Sport Picks

Stadium Background

AD Llerenense vs Santa Amalia - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Sun, Oct 4, 2026
VS
04:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

AD Llerenense host Santa Amalia in the Tercera RFEF - Group 14. Recent form is the clearest guide to this one. Recent numbers: AD Llerenense at 1.07 goals for, 1.21 against; Santa Amalia at 0.97 for, 1.65 against. Head-to-head, AD Llerenense have won 3 to Santa Amalia's 1, with 1 draws. They last met on Oct 4, 2026, ending 0:0. The numbers (1.13 xG vs 1.00) point toward AD Llerenense. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
AD Llerenense
35%
Draws
21%
Santa Amalia
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: AD Llerenense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

44% / Low Confidence
  • AD Llerenense have won more games recently than Santa Amalia.
  • AD Llerenense are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 14 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
AD Llerenense Clean Sheet 20%
Santa Amalia Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AD Llerenense Santa Amalia
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 12 8
Draws 7 7
Losses 10 16
Goals Scored 1.07 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.65
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 4, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
AD Llerenense vs Santa Amalia
0:0
Feb 1, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Santa Amalia vs AD Llerenense
1:2
Sep 21, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
AD Llerenense vs Santa Amalia
1:0
May 11, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
AD Llerenense vs Santa Amalia
1:2
Jan 12, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Santa Amalia vs AD Llerenense
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AD Llerenense 40 / 100
Santa Amalia 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AD Llerenense Santa Amalia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AD Llerenense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Santa Amalia's defensive record shows goals conceded in 81% of 31 matches.

AD Llerenense has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

AD Llerenense's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 1.60 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

AD Llerenense VS Santa Amalia
1.25 Goals Scored 0.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

AD Llerenense

(Home)
27 Sept
CD Zafra
0 : 0
AD Llerenense
19 Sept
AD Llerenense
1 : 0
Jaraiz
13 Sept
Villanovense
0 : 1
AD Llerenense
06 Sept
AD Llerenense
1 : 0
Guadiana
09 May
AD Llerenense
3 : 1
CD Calamonte
Page 1 of 6

Santa Amalia

(Away)
09 Oct
Santa Amalia
1 : 3
SP Villafranca
27 Sept
Santa Amalia
1 : 1
Moralo
20 Sept
Santa Amalia
1 : 1
Pueblonuevo
13 Sept
Santa Amalia
3 : 0
Quintana
06 Sept
UP Plasencia
0 : 0
Santa Amalia
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CD Azuaga 5 5 0 0 14:2 15
2 Moralo 5 3 2 0 9:5 11
3 AD Llerenense 4 3 1 0 3:0 10
4 Castuera 4 3 0 1 8:3 9
5 Puebla de la Calzada 5 2 2 1 8:4 8
6 Gevora 5 2 2 1 8:9 8
7 CD Zafra 4 2 1 1 5:3 7
8 Villanovense 5 2 1 2 5:4 7
9 Santa Amalia 5 1 3 1 6:5 6
10 SP Villafranca 5 2 0 3 7:8 6
11 Montijo 5 2 0 3 6:8 6
12 Cabeza del Buey 5 1 2 2 6:6 5
13 Jerez CF 4 1 1 2 4:6 4
14 Jaraiz 5 1 1 3 6:9 4
15 Quintana 4 1 1 2 2:5 4
16 Pueblonuevo 5 0 3 2 5:10 3
17 UP Plasencia 4 0 1 3 2:8 1
18 Guadiana 5 0 1 4 2:11 1
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 (Play Offs)