Sport Picks

Stadium Background

AD Marco 09 vs Oliveira do Douro

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Varela A.
34' Event
Pedro M. O. C.
70' Event
Saraiva G.

AI Match Summary

Oliveira do Douro in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 2-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Oliveira do Douro.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

61%
AD Marco 09
20%
Draws
19%
Oliveira do Douro
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: AD Marco 09

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

61% / High Confidence
  • AD Marco 09 have won more games recently than Oliveira do Douro.
  • 61% — that's where the model lands on AD Marco 09 taking it.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 21%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
AD Marco 09 Clean Sheet 68%
Oliveira do Douro Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AD Marco 09 Oliveira do Douro
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 12 7
Draws 9 8
Losses 11 15
Goals Scored 1 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.16 1.53
Expected Goals (xG) 0.92 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 9, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
AD Marco 09 vs Oliveira do Douro
2:4
Nov 12, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Oliveira do Douro vs AD Marco 09
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AD Marco 09 Compare

Top Goalscorer Varela A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Pedro M. O. C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.71
Avg xA / game 0.46

Oliveira do Douro Compare

Top Goalscorer Saraiva G.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Couto J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AD Marco 09 95 / 100
Oliveira do Douro 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AD Marco 09 Oliveira do Douro

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AD Marco 09 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Oliveira do Douro's defensive record shows goals conceded in 87% of 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.50 goals.

Recent resilience: AD Marco 09 stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: AD Marco 09 scored in 75% of their last 32 outings.

Scoring Trends

AD Marco 09 VS -
0.63 Goals Scored 0
1.25 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
25% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

AD Marco 09

(Home)
20 Sept
AD Marco 09
1 : 0
Maia Lidador
12 Sept
AD Marco 09
1 : 0
Vitoria Guimaraes B
06 Sept
Sao Joao de Ver
0 : 0
AD Marco 09
30 Aug
Regua
0 : 1
AD Marco 09
23 Aug
AD Marco 09
2 : 0
SC Vianense
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Oliveira do Douro

(Away)
07 Apr
Oliveira do Douro
0 : 1
Amarante FC
24 Mar
Rebordosa
2 : 0
Oliveira do Douro
17 Mar
Oliveira do Douro
0 : 2
Paredes
09 Mar
AD Marco 09
2 : 4
Oliveira do Douro
03 Mar
Oliveira do Douro
0 : 0
Vitoria Guimaraes B
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Amarante FC 26 17 8 1 40:15 59
2 Sao Joao de Ver 26 12 9 5 27:18 45
3 Gondomar 26 12 7 7 28:20 43
4 AD Marco 09 26 11 8 7 29:22 41
5 Rebordosa 26 8 12 6 27:23 36
6 Paredes 26 9 8 9 31:25 35
7 SC Salgueiros 26 9 8 9 35:26 35
8 Vitoria Guimaraes B 26 8 10 8 35:32 34
9 Beira Mar 26 8 10 8 31:31 34
10 Florgrade 26 8 9 9 24:24 33
11 Oliveira do Douro 26 6 8 12 25:33 26
12 Valadares Gaia FC 26 6 6 14 22:47 24
13 ACDR Lamelas 26 7 3 16 19:39 24
14 Vila Mea 26 6 4 16 27:45 22
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Promotion Group 2023/2024 (Main)