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AD Merida vs Alcorcon

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Doncel C.
31' Event
Doncel C.
74' Event

AI Match Summary

AD Merida in this Club Friendly matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored AD Merida.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
AD Merida
35%
Draws
19%
Alcorcon
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: AD Merida

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • AD Merida have won more games recently than Alcorcon.
  • Model gives AD Merida a 46% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
AD Merida Clean Sheet 68%
Alcorcon Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AD Merida Alcorcon
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 9 8
Draws 8 14
Losses 12 7
Goals Scored 1 1.28
Goals Conceded 1.52 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 14, 2026 Club Friendly
AD Merida vs Alcorcon
2:1
Feb 8, 2025 Primera RFEF - Group 2
AD Merida vs Alcorcon
2:1
Nov 3, 2024 Primera RFEF - Group 2
Alcorcon vs AD Merida
2:2
May 14, 2023 Primera RFEF - Group 1
Alcorcon vs AD Merida
0:0
Jan 8, 2023 Primera RFEF - Group 1
AD Merida vs Alcorcon
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AD Merida Compare

Top Goalscorer Doncel C.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Alcorcon Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AD Merida 50 / 100
Alcorcon 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AD Merida Alcorcon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AD Merida Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AD Merida's goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Alcorcon's defensive record shows goals conceded in 66% of 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Solid form: AD Merida remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

AD Merida VS Alcorcon
0.88 Goals Scored 1
1.75 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

AD Merida

(Home)
12 Sept
AD Merida
3 : 4
Mirandes
06 Sept
Leonesa
1 : 0
AD Merida
29 Aug
AD Merida
1 : 0
Deportivo Fabril
22 Aug
AD Merida
0 : 0
Recreativo Huelva
14 Aug
AD Merida
2 : 1
Alcorcon
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Alcorcon

(Away)
12 Sept
Antequera
1 : 1
Alcorcon
06 Sept
Alcorcon
0 : 0
CE Europa
30 Aug
Aguilas FC
2 : 2
Alcorcon
18 Aug
Unionistas de Salamanca
1 : 0
Alcorcon
14 Aug
AD Merida
2 : 1
Alcorcon
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