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AD Pemba vs Ferroviario Beira

Mozambique Mozambique

Mocambola
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Mocambola matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
AD Pemba
20%
Draws
38%
Ferroviario Beira
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: AD Pemba

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

38% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Ferroviario Beira lately — more wins on the board than AD Pemba.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64.2%
AD Pemba Clean Sheet 16%
Ferroviario Beira Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AD Pemba Ferroviario Beira
Matches Played 17 27
Wins 5 13
Draws 2 9
Losses 10 5
Goals Scored 0.53 1.15
Goals Conceded 1.12 0.7
Expected Goals (xG) 0.56 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 28, 2026 Mocambola
AD Pemba vs Ferroviario Beira
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AD Pemba 36 / 100
Ferroviario Beira 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AD Pemba Ferroviario Beira

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ferroviario Beira Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Solid form: AD Pemba remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

AD Pemba found the back of the net in 41% of recent matches (17 games).

Ferroviario Beira has conceded goals in 52% of their last 27 outings.

Scoring Trends

AD Pemba VS Ferroviario Beira
0.38 Goals Scored 1.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.75
63% Over 1.5 88%
13% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

AD Pemba

(Home)
16 Sept
ENH Vilankulo
1 : 0
AD Pemba
30 Aug
AD Pemba
0 : 1
Ferroviario Lichinga
26 Aug
AD Pemba
2 : 0
Ferroviario Nampula
21 Aug
AD Pemba
1 : 0
Ferroviario Nacala
18 Aug
AD Pemba
1 : 0
Maxaquene
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Ferroviario Beira

(Away)
16 Sept
Ferroviario Beira
0 : 2
Associacao Black Bulls
03 Sept
Maxaquene
1 : 2
Ferroviario Beira
30 Aug
Costa do Sol
1 : 2
Ferroviario Beira
23 Aug
Chingale de Tete
1 : 1
Ferroviario Beira
20 Aug
UD Songo
0 : 0
Ferroviario Beira
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Associacao Black Bulls 19 13 5 1 28:9 44
2 Costa do Sol 18 10 4 4 24:11 34
3 Ferroviario Beira 18 9 7 2 23:12 34
4 UD Songo 18 6 10 2 20:13 28
5 Ferroviario Lichinga 17 8 4 5 16:13 28
6 Ferroviario Nampula 17 8 4 5 19:21 28
7 Ferroviario Maputo 18 6 5 7 13:11 23
8 ENH Vilankulo 17 4 8 5 19:16 20
9 Ferroviario Nacala 17 5 5 7 8:12 20
10 Baia de Pemba 17 4 7 6 9:12 19
11 Sofala 19 4 6 9 8:19 18
12 AD Pemba 17 5 2 10 9:19 17
13 Maxaquene 18 1 7 10 8:23 10
14 Chingale de Tete 18 1 6 11 4:17 9
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)