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AD Pemba vs Maxaquene

Mozambique Mozambique

Mocambola
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Mocambola game between AD Pemba and Maxaquene finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward AD Pemba.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

65%
AD Pemba
20%
Draws
15%
Maxaquene
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: AD Pemba

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Maxaquene's 0.63 goals per match outpaces what AD Pemba have produced (0.56).
  • 65% — that's where the model lands on AD Pemba taking it.
  • Regular Mocambola form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 63.8%
AD Pemba Clean Sheet 20%
Maxaquene Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AD Pemba Maxaquene
Matches Played 16 30
Wins 5 5
Draws 2 12
Losses 9 13
Goals Scored 0.56 0.63
Goals Conceded 1.13 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.69 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 18, 2026 Mocambola
AD Pemba vs Maxaquene
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AD Pemba 49 / 100
Maxaquene 24 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AD Pemba Maxaquene

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AD Pemba Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Maxaquene's defensive record shows goals conceded in 63% of 30 matches.

Recent resilience: AD Pemba stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Maxaquene lost 3 of their last 5 games.

AD Pemba's goal record stands at 44% scoring rate across 16 recent games.

Scoring Trends

AD Pemba VS Maxaquene
0.25 Goals Scored 0.63
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 50%
13% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

AD Pemba

(Home)
30 Aug
AD Pemba
0 : 1
Ferroviario Lichinga
26 Aug
AD Pemba
2 : 0
Ferroviario Nampula
21 Aug
AD Pemba
1 : 0
Ferroviario Nacala
18 Aug
AD Pemba
1 : 0
Maxaquene
15 Aug
AD Pemba
0 : 2
Costa do Sol
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Maxaquene

(Away)
03 Sept
Maxaquene
1 : 2
Ferroviario Beira
29 Aug
Maxaquene
0 : 0
Sofala
25 Aug
Maxaquene
2 : 2
Ferroviario Maputo
21 Aug
Associacao Black Bulls
2 : 0
Maxaquene
18 Aug
AD Pemba
1 : 0
Maxaquene
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Associacao Black Bulls 17 11 5 1 25:9 38
2 Ferroviario Beira 17 9 7 1 23:10 34
3 Costa do Sol 17 9 4 4 23:11 31
4 Ferroviario Nampula 16 8 4 4 19:18 28
5 UD Songo 17 5 10 2 16:13 25
6 Ferroviario Lichinga 15 7 3 5 13:13 24
7 Ferroviario Maputo 17 5 5 7 11:11 20
8 Baia de Pemba 16 4 7 5 9:10 19
9 Ferroviario Nacala 16 5 4 7 8:12 19
10 Sofala 17 4 6 7 8:16 18
11 AD Pemba 16 5 2 9 9:18 17
12 ENH Vilankulo 15 2 8 5 16:16 14
13 Maxaquene 17 1 7 9 8:19 10
14 Chingale de Tete 17 1 6 10 4:16 9
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)