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AD Rosario vs Santa Cruz - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Costa Rica Costa Rica

Liga de Ascenso
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
11:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

AD Rosario host Santa Cruz in the Liga de Ascenso. This one's hard to separate. AD Rosario have averaged 1.04 scored and 1.42 conceded recently, against Santa Cruz's 1.19 scored and 1.7 conceded. Head-to-head, AD Rosario have won 1 to Santa Cruz's 0, with 0 draws. They last met on Aug 30, 2026, ending 1:2. Model xG sits at 1.88 vs 1.31, favoring AD Rosario. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
AD Rosario
20%
Draws
22%
Santa Cruz
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: AD Rosario

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Santa Cruz average 1.19 goals a game right now, well clear of AD Rosario's 1.04.
  • Model gives AD Rosario a 58% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Liga de Ascenso form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
AD Rosario Clean Sheet 18%
Santa Cruz Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AD Rosario Santa Cruz
Matches Played 26 27
Wins 6 6
Draws 9 6
Losses 11 15
Goals Scored 1.04 1.19
Goals Conceded 1.42 1.7
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 30, 2026 Liga de Ascenso
Santa Cruz vs AD Rosario
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AD Rosario 67 / 100
Santa Cruz 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AD Rosario Santa Cruz

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AD Rosario Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Santa Cruz conceded in 85% of 27 recent games.

Attacking prowess: AD Rosario scored in 62% of their last 26 outings.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: AD Rosario stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

AD Rosario VS Santa Cruz
1.38 Goals Scored 1.38
1.25 Goals Conceded 2.38
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 88%
13% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

AD Rosario

(Home)
12 Oct
Grecia
2 : 2
AD Rosario
03 Oct
AD Rosario
1 : 0
Quepos FC
20 Sept
ADR Jicaral
1 : 1
AD Rosario
12 Sept
AD Rosario
2 : 1
Cofutpa
06 Sept
AD Sarchi
2 : 1
AD Rosario
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Santa Cruz

(Away)
11 Oct
Santa Cruz
0 : 3
ADR Jicaral
04 Oct
Grecia
1 : 0
Santa Cruz
27 Sept
Cofutpa
3 : 1
Santa Cruz
20 Sept
Santa Cruz
0 : 2
Quepos FC
13 Sept
Santa Cruz
4 : 0
AD Sarchi
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 ADR Jicaral 10 7 3 0 18:5 24
2 Quepos FC 10 6 1 3 15:8 19
3 Grecia 9 4 3 2 11:8 15
4 AD Rosario 9 4 2 3 13:12 14
5 AD Sarchi 9 3 2 4 9:13 11
6 Santa Cruz 10 2 0 8 11:22 6
7 Cofutpa 9 1 1 7 8:17 4
Promotion - Liga de Ascenso (Apertura - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Santa Ana 11 8 0 3 19:10 24
2 Pitbulls 11 5 5 1 20:15 20
3 Cariari Pococi 11 4 4 3 12:11 16
4 Carmelita 11 4 3 4 19:13 15
5 Aserri 11 4 3 4 12:13 15
6 Guadalupe 11 3 3 5 15:19 12
7 FC Moravia 11 3 1 7 12:14 10
8 CS Uruguay 11 2 3 6 9:23 9
Promotion - Liga de Ascenso (Apertura - Play Offs)