Sport Picks

Stadium Background

AD Tarma vs Alianza Huanuco

Peru Peru

Copa de la Liga Estadio Unión Tarma, Tarma
AD Tarma Logo

AD Tarma

3 - 1
FT
Alianza Huanuco Logo

Alianza Huanuco

Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Mazzo A.
24' Event
Rojas J.
39' Event
Flores A.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 3-1. This leg finished 3-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
AD Tarma
30%
Draws
47%
Alianza Huanuco
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Alianza Huanuco

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Alianza Huanuco have won more games recently than AD Tarma.
  • 47% — that's where the model lands on Alianza Huanuco taking it.
  • Alianza Huanuco arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Alianza Huanuco, who have won 1 of the last 4 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
AD Tarma Clean Sheet 14%
Alianza Huanuco Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AD Tarma Alianza Huanuco
Matches Played 31 28
Wins 8 9
Draws 8 8
Losses 15 11
Goals Scored 1.16 1.46
Goals Conceded 1.45 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 19, 2026 Copa de la Liga
AD Tarma vs Alianza Huanuco
3:1
Oct 20, 2025 Liga 1
Alianza Huanuco vs AD Tarma
0:0
Jul 31, 2025 Liga 1
AD Tarma vs Alianza Huanuco
0:3
Feb 23, 2025 Liga 1
Alianza Huanuco vs AD Tarma
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AD Tarma Compare

Top Goalscorer Mazzo A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Rojas J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Alianza Huanuco Compare

Top Goalscorer Flores A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AD Tarma 27 / 100
Alianza Huanuco 39 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AD Tarma Alianza Huanuco

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Alianza Huanuco Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AD Tarma found the back of the net in 68% of recent matches (31 games).

Defensive concern: Alianza Huanuco conceded in 71% of 28 recent games.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: AD Tarma stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

AD Tarma VS Alianza Huanuco
0.75 Goals Scored 1.25
2 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

AD Tarma

(Home)
27 Sept
AD Tarma
0 : 1
Sporting Cristal
23 Sept
AD Tarma
2 : 1
Cienciano
19 Sept
A. Lima
2 : 0
AD Tarma
06 Sept
FBC Melgar
3 : 0
AD Tarma
30 Aug
AD Tarma
1 : 3
Sport Huancayo
Page 1 of 7

Alianza Huanuco

(Away)
27 Sept
Alianza Huanuco
2 : 2
Tacna Heroica
12 Sept
Binacional
0 : 0
Alianza Huanuco
06 Sept
Alianza Huanuco
1 : 1
Union Minas
29 Aug
Estudiantil CNI
3 : 0
Alianza Huanuco
24 Aug
Alianza Huanuco
1 : 0
Tacna Heroica
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Alianza Atl. 3 3 0 0 5:1 9
2 Carlos Mannucci 3 2 0 1 6:4 6
3 A. Lima 3 0 1 2 2:5 1
4 Cesar Vallejo 3 0 1 2 2:5 1
Promotion - Copa de la Liga (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 ADA Jaen 2 1 1 0 2:0 4
2 Juan Pablo II 2 0 2 0 0:0 2
3 Comerciantes Unidos 2 0 1 1 0:2 1
Promotion - Copa de la Liga (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cajamarca 2 1 1 0 5:3 4
2 Llacuabamba 2 0 2 0 3:3 2
3 FC Cajamarca 2 0 1 1 2:4 1
Promotion - Copa de la Liga (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Atletico Grau 2 1 1 0 4:3 4
2 Pirata 2 1 0 1 4:3 3
3 Universitario de Deportes 2 0 1 1 1:3 1
Promotion - Copa de la Liga (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 5)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sport Huancayo 3 2 1 0 4:2 7
2 AD Tarma 3 1 1 1 3:2 4
3 Alianza Huanuco 3 1 1 1 5:5 4
4 Union Minas 3 0 1 2 2:5 1
Promotion - Copa de la Liga (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 6)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cienciano 3 3 0 0 6:2 9
2 Deportivo Garcilaso 3 1 1 1 5:3 4
3 Binacional 3 1 0 2 5:9 3
4 Cusco 3 0 1 2 4:6 1
Promotion - Copa de la Liga (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 7)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Los Chankas 2 2 0 0 4:0 6
2 Santos FC 2 1 0 1 2:4 3
3 Ayacucho 2 0 0 2 1:3 0
Promotion - Copa de la Liga (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 8)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Moquegua 2 1 1 0 3:2 4
2 Tacna Heroica 2 1 0 1 5:5 3
3 FBC Melgar 2 0 1 1 2:3 1
Promotion - Copa de la Liga (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 9)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sport Boys 2 1 1 0 5:2 4
2 AD Cantolao 2 1 0 1 4:6 3
3 U. San Martin 2 0 1 1 5:6 1
Promotion - Copa de la Liga (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 10)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sporting Cristal 3 2 1 0 5:2 7
2 Comerciantes FC 3 1 2 0 2:1 5
3 Union Comercio 3 1 0 2 3:4 3
4 Estudiantil CNI 3 0 1 2 2:5 1
Promotion - Copa de la Liga (Play Offs)